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Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Matches Featuring PSG & Monaco (Feb. 26-27)

Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Matches Featuring PSG & Monaco (Feb. 26-27) article feature image
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ANP Sport via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Lionel Messi.

This past weekend featured an exciting Ligue 1 action, but the upcoming slate has the potential to bring similar intrigue with all 20 teams playing again.

Paris Saint-Germain suffered its first league loss since October last Saturday, and while it won’t offer any solace to fellow teams toward the top of the league as PSG is all but assured a title, it does show the Parisians are human.

They’ll return home for a battle with an in-form Saint-Étienne, but there are a host of consequential games set to be played.

Without further ado, here are our three best bets for the weekend in French football.

Ligue 1 Best Bets

Strasbourg vs. Nice

Strasbourg Odds +120
Nice Odds +245
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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One of the most underrated squads in Ligue 1 is Strasbourg, which currently sits in fourth place in the table.

Les Bleus et Blanc has one of the most prolific attacks in the league, guided by a 10.7% conversion rate that’s good for top in the league. Strasbourg has won two games on the bounce on home soil, plus it has posted a 0.5 expected goals per game differential at the Stade de la Meinau.

Its opponent is ahead by just one spot in the standings, meaning this fixture with Nice is arguably the most important of the weekend. A victory and Strasbourg would be level on points for the coveted third position, but a win the other direction would go a long way in securing that spot.

To a large extent, Nice has outperformed its advanced metrics throughout the year. Particularly, it has had road success despite a -0.52 xG/game differential.

With high stakes riding on this tie, I’m comfortable backing a side that should be a heavy favorite on paper to win at plus money. This really is a no-brainer.

Zimmerman’s Pick: Strasbourg ML (+120)

PSG vs. Saint-Étienne

PSG Odds -575
Saint-Étienne Odds +1300
Draw +750
Over/Under 3.5 (-115 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 2 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Each week, I like to punish myself by fading the most dominant side in the French top flight for the past decade despite its abundance of talent.

This time around, PSG will be taking on Saint-Étienne, which has been battling to stay out of the relegation zone. As it stands, Les Verts are clear by a point, but the logjam at the bottom of the table is going to make things difficult until the finish.

Just one point separates the bottom five in Ligue 1, so the intensity has to be high for Saint-Étienne to generate an important result against the best team in the league.

While the Parisians are rightfully solid favorites, I still believe they’re getting too much credit once again. This is a Saint-Étienne team with everything to play for and it has won its last two road matches.

Lionel Messi and PSG don’t have anything consequential to play for with the title locked up, and its home xG/game differential of 0.84 isn’t two goals better than Saint-Etienne’s -0.55 xG/game road differential.

I see value on Les Verts at +180 (+1.5) and at +2.5 (-140), so it’s just a matter of the risk you want to accept with this game.

Zimmerman’s Pick: Saint-Étienne +1.5 (+180) | Saint-Étienne +2.5 (-140)

Monaco vs. Reims

Monaco Odds -225
Reims Odds +700
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -120)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
How To Watch beIN SPORT
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Monaco has been struggling in Ligue 1, failing to win a game since Jan. 16 in its slide. However, I believe that this is a good spot for them to change that trend.

Reims has been able to generate an xG edge in just one of its past five league contests, while Monaco has done the opposite. And the Monegasques are getting a generous number against the spread.

The overall home/away xG/game differential is 1.19 in favor of Monaco, but it has been far better than Reims as of late, even if results don’t reflect that as much as they could.

This is a random sport, but the best thing you can do is see how teams are generating and conceding chances. Reims has done a lot more of the latter as of late, and Monaco should be able to take advantage of that fact at home.

Look out for Monaco to break fix its luck and do so in comfortable fashion.

Zimmerman’s Pick: Monaco -1.5 (+135)

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