MLS Odds, Pick, Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs. LA Galaxy Betting Preview (Oct. 27)

MLS Odds, Pick, Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs. LA Galaxy Betting Preview (Oct. 27) article feature image
Credit:

Shaun Clark/Getty Images. Pictured: Javier Hernandez.

  • Sporting Kansas City hosts the Los Angeles Galaxy in Wednesday's Major League Soccer showdown.
  • Javier "Chicharito" and the visitors are hoping to solidify their postseason position with a positive result.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the matchup below and delivers two intriguing picks.

Sporting KC vs. LA Galaxy Odds

Sporting KC Odds -120
LA Galaxy Odds +310
Draw +295
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 8:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch FS1 | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Editor’s Note: Chicharito is not listed on the teamsheet for tonight’s game vs. Sporting KC

Sporting Kansas City looks to boost its Western Conference regular-season title hopes Wednesday when it hosts a Los Angeles Galaxy side that’s trying to solidify its playoff place.

Sporting Kansas City finished the weekend within three points of Western Conference-leading Seattle after an away win over the Sounders, also with a match in hand.

Meanwhile, the Galaxy are unbeaten in their last four after rallying from two goals down to salvage a 2-2 draw against FC Dallas.

The visitors are looking to even the season series in their second and final meeting after Sporting Kansas City earned a 2-0 win in Southern California back in July.

Does Sporting KC Finally Rest Red-Hot Stars?

Daniel Salloi is one goal off the MLS scoring lead with 16 to his name, but he’s not even the hottest attacking player in a Sporting Kansas City kit these days.

That honor belongs to Johnny Russell, whose 79th-minute winner in Seattle marked his seventh consecutive match with at least a goal. And that streak — comprising eight of his 12 goals on the season — has made the 31-year-old Scottish international nearly impossible to remove from the lineup.

In fact, Russell has played every minute of Sporting Kansas City’s last 12 matches. However, even with a potential first-round bye on the line, manager Peter Vermes will probably have to eventually rest him.

Sporting Kansas City is playing four matches in the next 12 days, and Russell might be playing himself into a return to international duty in the November window, which falls just before the start of the MLS postseason.

Salloi is questionable with an ankle issue after he missed the game against Seattle, and Alan Pulido remains out with a knee injury that has sidelined him several weeks.

Goalkeeper Tim Melia might be suspended for a controversial body slam incident in the win over Seattle. However, the league had yet to issue discipline as of late Tuesday night.

LA Galaxy Learning To Thrive With Chicharito?

The Galaxy’s previous meeting with Sporting Kansas City was their first of a long stretch without striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez. Los Angeles kept their heads above water — and the playoff line — during his three-month absence. They actually struggled more upon his reintroduction in September, with the last six games of a nine-match winless run coming after his return.

It’s been better of late, though, with Chicharito scoring twice and his team scoring eight goals while taking eight points from its last four games.

And maybe Los Angeles is finally shaking its habit of being overly deferential to Chicharito when he’s on the field. In his first 16 appearances, he scored 12 of the Galaxy’s 20 goals.

The Galaxy could be a bit light at the back. Defender Nick DePuy will serve a yellow-card suspension, and fellow defender Jorge Villafana is questionable with an undisclosed issue.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The unknowns in this game are on Sporting Kansas City’s side. Will Salloi and Russell both play? Will Melia face discipline? I don’t know either at the time of writing, and we won’t know the former until lineups come out an hour before kickoff.

We do know Chicharito is likely to lead the line again for the visitors. That leads me to two plays here.

The first is the total over 2.5 goals, at a somewhat pricey -165 odds and an implied 62.3% probability. The total has gone over 2.5 goals in 12 of 19 Galaxy games when Chicharito plays, and more importantly in eight of 10 away matches.

And there’s a strong case to make for causality with that away mark. The Galaxy are naturally focused on getting the most out of their best player. On the road, that means a less conservative approach than is typical of visiting teams.

The second is Chicharito to score at any time. The strength of Sporting Kansas City’s overall record has driven his price down to a relatively palatable +160 odds and an implied 38.5% probability.

However, Sporting isn’t a particularly strong defensive side, and they haven’t seen Chicharito yet this season. That’s good for the Mexican star, who has scored in nine of 14 games when facing a team for the first time in 2021. And as we all know, he missed out the previous time these sides met.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 goals (-165) | Chicharito — Anytime Scorer (+160)

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