Lazio vs. AC Milan Odds
| Lazio Odds | +118 |
| AC Milan Odds | +205 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-157 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Sunday evening via DraftKings. | |
A huge match in Serie A headlines Monday's soccer action, as sixth-place Lazio host second-place AC Milan.
Lazio's Champions League hopes are on life support, entering this match eight points off fourth place Juventus with two games in hand. They lost 5-2 at Napoli on Thursday, which was their first loss in Italy since March 6. They are in incredible form at Stadio Olimpico, winning their last nine matches there in Serie A.
Milan held the top spot in Serie A for much of the first half of season until a bad run of form in February and March. Now, they are starting to let a Champions League spot slip away, sitting in third place just three points ahead of Napoli in fifh. They need a result on Monday or they could let a fantastic campaign fade away.
Lazio
Lazio is one of the more overrated teams in Italy, mainly due to the fact that they have done most of their damage against teams below them in the table. In nine matches against teams above them in the league standings, I Biancocelesti has gone 2-2-5 and been outscored 21-14. Included in that was a 3-2 loss to Milan back in December when Theo Hernandez scored a 90th-minute winner.
Another reason Lazio is overrated is because they have way more points than they should at this stage in the season. Lazio has 58 actual points, but Understat's expected points metric has them at a projected 45.70.
Lazio typically plays out of 3-5-2, which can be a dream come true for most managers because it allows teams to put two strikers on the field while still fielding three central midfielders who can outnumber or match the opponents, all while getting necessary width from two wingbacks.
It can also easily be switched into a 5-3-2 when facing more attack-heavy teams, which I think is what we might see here against a high-powered attack like Milan.
Unfortunately, though, Lazio hasn't had much success playing the 3-5-2 this season with a +0.33 xGD per 90 minutes when playing out of the formation.
AC Milan
AC Milan was always due for some type of negative regression offensively.
The problem is that they have been too reliant on two things this season:
1. Penalty kicks.
2. 39-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
The Rossoneri have been awarded 16 spot kicks this season, which is more than any other club across Europe's major five leagues. Additionally, they don't have many goal-scoring threats outside of Ibrahimovic, who is averaging a ridiculous 1.00 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate. What's even worse for Milan is that they are going to be without Ibrahimovic on Monday.
Stefano #Pioli confirms Zlatan #Ibrahimovic is out of tomorrow’s clash against #Lazio and suggests Mario #Mandzukic could replace the Swede. https://t.co/QEnIi8WzXG#LazioMilan#SerieA#Calcio#ACMilan#Milanpic.twitter.com/CFd1niYxOO
— footballitalia (@footballitalia) April 25, 2021
Since 20% of AC Milan's goals have come from the penalty spot, it's somewhat struggled to create chances organically. The Rossoneri average only 1.12 xG per match from open play this season, which is extremely low for a team currently inside the top four.
However, with all that being said, AC Milan is red hot on the road, winning eight of their last nine matches away from the San Siro. In fact, the Rossoneri have an incredible 13-1-1 record on the road this season with a +8.25 xGD in 15 matches.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even without Zlatan in the lineup, I still think AC Milan is going to give Lazio a lot of problems, especially given Lazio struggles against teams ahead of them in the table and AC Milan's form on the road this season.
Therefore, I am going to back AC Milan's spread of +0.5 at -141 odds.
Pick: AC Milan +0.5 (-141)
