Newcastle vs. Brentford: Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction (Saturday, Oct. 8)
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Newcastle United
- Newcastle United and Brentford will face off at St. James' Park on Saturday.
- Newcastle is looking to keep its momentum after a huge win last week.
- Nicholas Hennion breaks down the matchup and why the value is on the team total.
Newcastle vs. Brentford Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -130 |
| Brentford Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Fresh off a blowout win against Fulham, Newcastle United returns to St. James' Park for a home battle with Brentford.
Manager Eddie Howe's side has proven very draw-happy to begin the new campaign with five of its first eight matches finishing on level terms. Meanwhile, Brentford sits in 10th place having avoided defeat in six of its first eight matches.
Last season, Newcastle earned points in both meetings with the Bees. The first leg saw these sides draw 3-3 in Newcastle while the meeting in London was 3-0 to the visitors, though Newcastle was largely aided by a Brentford red card 11 minutes in.
Newcastle Offense Surging
Despite currently sitting in seventh position, Newcastle has posted some strong underlying metrics.
In its first eight fixtures, the Magpies have a +4.87 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential, the fifth-best mark in the Premier League. That said, Howe's side could use some improvements defensively as that unit ranks ninth in xGOT against and is tied for 10th in big scoring chances against.
Offensively, though, Newcastle has excelled, particularly at home. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have created more xGOT than Newcastle, which has simultaneously generated 1.91 xGOT per 90 minutes at home.
Saturday's hosts are also unbeaten at home to start this season and are an incredible 8-1-4 (W-L-D) at home this calendar year. Over that span, Newcastle has been held goalless only twice.
Brentford Has Road Woes
Since joining the Premier League last year, Brentford continues to prove a seesaw in terms of home vs. road form.
In four road fixtures this season, the Bees have a -0.54 xGOT differential and are creating just over one expected goal on target offensively. Plus, it's not as if the competition level is that high; those four matches came against Leicester City, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
Even if you just consider Brentford's past 17 road fixtures against non-Big Six sides, the results still aren't encouraging. In that sample, Brentford has created only 1.21 xG/90 minutes and has allowed 1.22 xG/90 minutes.
Thus, if Brentford hopes to improve its results, it will have to come closer to replicating its metrics at home (+2.27 xGOT differential so far this season).
Betting Analysis & Pick
I so want to bet Newcastle here, but I'm worried it will settle for a point and the draw moneyline will end up cashing.
Thus, I'm going to get creative and look elsewhere, specifically the Newcastle team total. Combine the fact that Newcastle's looked really good offensively at home this season with the fact Brentford's defense struggles away from home, and I'm of the belief the Magpies attack has its way.
Plus, this will easily be the best attack Brentford has faced away from home this season, so I'm selling high a bit on manager Thomas Frank's true road defense.
Finally, it's worth noting that in the most recent meeting between these sides at St. James' Park – a meeting that occurred BEFORE the January transfer window – Newcastle created 1.71 xGOT and four big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
For those reasons, take Newcastle's team total at -135 or better.
The Pick: Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-130)
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