Norway and Iraq face off today in a World Cup Group I match at 6:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The match will broadcast on FOX and Telemundo.
Norway is a heavy -500 favorite on the moneyline while Iraq is +1200 to pull off the upset. The over/under is 2.5 goals (-175o / +137u).
Let's get into our Iraq vs Norway prediction for today's World Cup tilt.
Norway vs Iraq Prediction
- Pick: Norway to Win to Nil (-138)
Our Norway vs Iraq best bet is a Norway victory without conceding a goal. Find the best World Cup odds by checking our live soccer page.
Norway vs Iraq Odds
| Norway Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -175o / 137u | -500 | |
| Iraq Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -175o / 137u | +1200 | |
Norway vs Iraq World Cup Preview
Securing a win in the opening match is critical for Norway, especially in a difficult group that also includes France and Senegal.
This fixture against Iraq represents their best opportunity to gain three points and a significant goal-differential boost. Iraq, on the other hand, is not burdened by high expectations and will aim to absorb pressure and keep the scoreline respectable.
The tactical matchup heavily favors Norway. Their Premier League-quality midfield should dictate the pace of the game, creating numerous chances against Iraq's defensive shell. During qualifying, Norway averaged 7.68 shots on target per game, a number that ranked among the best in Europe.
It is difficult to see how Iraq's defense, largely comprised of players from a domestic league ranked 85th in the world by Opta, can contain the likes of Haaland and Alexander Sorloth for 90 minutes.
This will be the first-ever official meeting between the two nations. Iraq has only played one previous match against a European opponent in this competition, a 2-1 loss to Belgium in 1986. This lack of experience against top-tier European sides, combined with the immense gap in individual talent, points toward a one-sided affair.
This Iraq vs Norway prediction is based on the clear qualitative superiority of the European side.
Norway vs Iraq Predictions, Betting Analysis
Pick: Norway to Win to Nil (-138)
Norway enters this opening match as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. They completed a perfect European qualifying campaign, winning all eight matches, including two victories over Italy.
Their attack, spearheaded by Erling Haaland, was the most potent in Europe, averaging an incredible 4.62 goals per game. While their defense showed occasional vulnerabilities during qualifying, they still managed four clean sheets in eight games.
This defensive solidity is key to the Iraq vs Norway pick of a win to nil. Iraq’s path to the tournament was arduous, requiring 21 matches. Their attack was far from prolific, scoring 30 goals across those games.
In their decisive playoff against Bolivia, they generated just 0.74 expected goals (xG) and held only 32% of the possession.
Against a Norwegian side that averaged 58% possession in a much tougher qualifying group, Iraq will likely be starved of the ball and struggle to create any meaningful opportunities.
Given this offensive disparity, a Norwegian victory without conceding a goal offers solid value.
Norway vs Iraq Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Norway | Draw | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| 80.3% | 13.2% | 6.5% |
Projected Total Goals
| Norway | Total Goals | Iraq |
|---|---|---|
| 2.54 | 3.11 | 0.57 |
Norway vs Iraq Weather
According to Accuweather, it will be around 76 degrees and mostly sunny at Gillette Stadium when the match starts. There will be around 7 mph WSW winds with 16 mph gusts.
