Everton vs. Liverpool Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction, Preview (Dec. 1)
Credit: Simon Stacpoole, Getty. Liverpool celebrates a goal against Southampton.
- Liverpool are significant favorites on Wednesday in the latest Merseyside Derby vs. Everton.
- The Reds have won three straight in all competitions by a combined 10-0 scoreline.
- Avery Zimmerman breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Everton vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-170 / +135)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBCSN | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
One of the greatest rivalries in the sport will be ignited once more on Wednesday when Everton hosts Liverpool for the latest edition of the Merseyside Derby.
This iteration of the heated contest between the two sides that are divided by Stanley Park comes at a crucial time as Liverpool battles to maintain its position within touching distance of the league leaders while Everton has dropped all the way down the table due to awful form in recent weeks.
Though this isn’t a fixture that has been kind to Everton in recent years, as the Toffees have picked up just one win since 2011. That lone victory came in the most recent meeting between the two sides in February. Everton’s 2-0 win was the first at Anfield for the club in the 21st century, and it almost contributed to a catastrophic end of the season for Liverpool.
Do the Toffees have a chance at getting anything from this matchup, or will Liverpool avenge its most recent result against its next-door neighbors to continue its quality run of form?
Everton Not the Same Team that Opened the Season
When the Toffees rattled off 10 points of an opening 15 to start the season, it appeared that Rafa Benitez may be in the process of something very impressive.
That hope has since dissolved rapidly for Everton, who is now 14th in the Premier League after taking one point from its last five games. While Everton may not be playing like the 14th-best side in the league (Everton is eighth in league-wide xG and 10th in xGA), the results haven’t been there, and the club finds itself in a similarly dreadful position to prior seasons.
Everton has taken 10 points from an available 18 at Goodison Park thus far on the year, which is far better than the five points it has taken from 21 available on the road, though Liverpool has the second-best road record in the league.
This is going to be an incredibly difficult task for Benitez and his squad, but finding a result against Liverpool could be vital in kickstarting the season. It could also be crucial in saving Benitez’s job, as the rumblings have begun regarding his status on Merseyside.
Benitez is currently the -110 favorite to be the next EPL manager to leave his club, per Unibet.
Liverpool a Different Club from Previous Meeting
Much like Everton, Liverpool is coming into this game as a different side than earlier. When these teams last met in February and Everton pulled off the shocking upset, Liverpool didn’t resemble its true squad.
Virgil Van Dijk was still recovering from an ACL tear, Liverpool’s center backs were Ozan Kabak and Jordan Henderson and LFC was in the midst of a three-game home losing streak – which is unheard of for the club.
With the return of the best center back in the world and a resurgent squad, Liverpool has began the new campaign with an upgraded outlook. The Reds won their Champions League group in dominant fashion without dropping any points through five games and currently sit in third in the Premier League, just two points back of Chelsea.
Since suffering a disappointing loss to West Ham, Liverpool has rattled off three consecutive wins without conceding a goal and it’ll travel across the city with a renewed swagger.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Despite Everton’s triumph in February, I see no reason to believe why fading Liverpool and backing a torrid Everton side would provide any value.
Though derbies often produce surprising results, Liverpool has lost just once to Everton in the past decade, and it simply has a far better squad. In each third of the pitch, Liverpool has a significant edge and that should be reflected in the outcome.
This isn’t a Liverpool team that has thrived at home and shown poorer form on the road as in recent years, as the Reds have a greater points percentage on the road than at Anfield.
Because of the slog that is a Premier League winter, I’m going to bet with a touch of insurance on the Asian spread of -1.25. While there isn’t much value in betting a -260 favorite, this allows a bit of wiggle room for Liverpool to earn a narrow victory and still salvage half of the bet.
Don’t be afraid to back Liverpool on a plus-money spread, but this is my top selection.
Pick: Liverpool -1.25 (-115)