Liverpool vs. Manchester City Betting Pick & Odds: Can Champs Get Result on the Road?

Liverpool vs. Manchester City Betting Pick & Odds: Can Champs Get Result on the Road? article feature image
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Dave Thompson/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Kevin De Bruyne.

  • Global soccer heavyweights Liverpool and Manchester City square off Sunday in Premier League action.
  • The Reds are hoping to continue their blistering scoring run, but face arguably the world’s best defense in this matchup at Anfiele.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down this first-class affair below and explains why he’s backing Man City to get a result.

Liverpool vs. Man City Odds

Liverpool Odds +180
Man City Odds +145
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Global heavyweights Manchester City and Liverpool will square off Sunday, with Premier League supremacy on the line. This showdown pits the two best teams in the English top flight against each other, with the Reds sitting a point clear of the Cityzens in the table.

Manchester City, which enters this star-studded affair as the slight +145 moneyline favorite, can move into first place with a road victory at Anfield. On the other side, Liverpool has been the cream of the crop thus far and scoring when it wants en route to 14 points through six contests.

The Cityzens did hit a bump in the road earlier in the week when they suffered a 2-0 road loss against juggernaut Paris Saint-Germain in Champions League action in the French capital. In contrast, Liverpool ran roughshod over Portuguese host Porto in their Champions League clash via a 5-1 triumph.

With so much at stake, let’s take a look at these sides and see where we can find betting value.

Liverpool Offense Firing on All Cylinders

Things could not be going much better for the Reds, sans a few draws in their most recent games. They looked fantastic in the shellacking of Porto, which saw the veteran guard of Mohamed Salah (two goals), Roberto Firmino (two goals) and Sadio Mané (one goal) do all the damage.

Those 90 minutes perfectly summed up how well Liverpool’s offense is clicking this month as well. It’s been scoring at will, including bagging three goals in each of its last three league tilts against Leeds United, Crystal Palace and Brentford. However, the Bees matched them goal for goal and secured an impressive draw against the Reds last time out.

Liverpool have scored at least three goals in each of their last six matches.

20 goals in September.

Next up: Manchester City 🍿 pic.twitter.com/KToeIf6OyG

— Goal (@goal) September 29, 2021

When it comes to the advanced metrics, Liverpool has obviously been one of the best. The Reds sit on 16.9 expected goals and 7.0 xGA, generating a +9.9 xG differential and +1.66 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per FBref.com. The xG stat line is tops in the league, while the xGDiff and xGDiff/90 are second overall.

Bottom line, Liverpool is going to have to hope it can produce similar numbers against a far superior defense than anything it has faced that has kept pretty much everyone silent in the first division.


Manchester City Hoping to Reignite Offensive Punch

To say manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens were unlucky in Tuesday’s confrontation with PSG would be an understatement. They had opportunities galore go by the wayside, which led to a somewhat surprising shutout defeat.

Whether it was Raheem Sterling’s shot off the woodwork or Bernardo Silva’s gaffe on his ghastly sitter, Manchester City simply couldn’t find its way to get one past the Ligue 1 powerhouse despite dominating the xG battle.

PSG (0.48) 2-0 (1.97) Man City

— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) September 28, 2021

Now, the Cityzens have to shake off the sting of defeat and focus on the task at hand. The positives Guardiola and his group can take into this fixture are the fact they’ve notched five consecutive clean sheets in league action, plus they’ve won 14 of their last 16 away fixtures in the first division.

As for the key statistics, Manchester City has been the best performer at both ends of the pitch if you’re putting together a collective résumé. The Cityzens have produced a solid 13.9 xG, but have yielded an utterly paltry 3.0 xG through six fixtures in the English top flight, according to FBref.com.

Do the simple math, my friends. Guardiola’s men are conceding on average 0.5 xGA so far, which is downright absurd considering the next closest EPL club is Brentford at double (6.0 xGA) in the metric. So, if the Cityzens can keep Liverpool’s attack somewhere near that number, they should be in great position to walk out of Anfield with a positive result.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

“Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.”

Legendary Alabama football coach Bear Bryant coined the phrase during his historic reign with the Crimson Tide, which I believe also applies to soccer. So, when I look at this match and see Liverpool is going to face — in my opinion — the best defense in the world, I have no concern about Guardiola’s men getting the job done at Anfield.

That said, I’m backing Manchester City on the Draw No Bet wager at -125 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. I’m well aware of what Liverpool has done going forward this season, but this isn’t Leeds on the other side of the pitch.

If you’re looking for some prop action, sprinkle a little on Manchester City to go over its team total of 1.5 goals at +100 odds. The Cityzens should have hung at least two goals on PSG at Parc des Princes but came up empty. I don’t expect those woes to continue against this Liverpool defense.

Pick: Manchester City — Draw No Bet (-125)

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