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Brentford vs. Crystal Palace Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back the Bees to End Skid (Feb. 12)

Brentford vs. Crystal Palace Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back the Bees to End Skid (Feb. 12) article feature image
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Joe Prior/Visionhaus via Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Dasilva

  • Fairly even sides go at it Saturday when Brentford hosts Crystal Palace in their Premier League match.
  • The Bees haven't found much winning success since the start of the new year, but Avery Zimmerman thinks this could be the spot that changes.
  • Check out below why he thinks Brentford on the Draw No Bet line is his top pick.

Brentford vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Brentford Odds +165
Crystal Palace Odds +175
Draw +210
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -165)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

In a battle of two teams that haven’t been able to win a Premier League game since January 2nd, Brentford and Crystal Palace will square off at the Brentford Community Stadium.

The two teams have been struggling in the league, with Brentford taking just three points from an available 18 since the dawn of the new year and Palace taking two of 12.

Each squad is in desperate need of a positive result, and there isn’t much that separates them heading into this game. Palace leads Brentford in the table by just one position and two points, though they also have a game in hand, and the squads played to a scoreless draw in their first encounter in August.

What can we expect in this meeting?

Brentford Showing Positive Signs in Dangerous Situation

Despite the lack of results to show for it, and despite the 2-0 defeat at the Etihad in the midweek, the Bees aren’t playing that poorly.

Losses to Brighton, Manchester United and Wolves all featured positive xG differentials for Brentford, and the case can be made that no team in the league has been more unlucky. Brentford’s 7.4 percent conversion rate isn’t bad, and it really is unlucky that the side hasn’t been able to generate more points.

But that’s the Premier League, and the Bees are now in a precarious position as 14 games remain. The problem is, just 14 games remain for four teams in the Premier League, and other squads have up to 18 games remaining. That means points are at a serious premium right now, as it’s hard to know how many they’ll need when the final quarter of the season arrives.

If Brentford continue to pile on the chances and create more than their opponents, it would be surprising to see the Bees continually fail to get results. But if they can’t convert chances at a better rate, and if they continue to endure rough luck, a nervy end of the season could be ahead.

Crystal Palace Enduring Similar Tough Luck

Speaking of unfortunate results, Palace are right up there in terms of unluckiness.

Expected goals is obviously not a perfect stat, and while I consistently use it as a baseline indicator for future outcomes, it doesn’t reflect the entirely human nature of sport. With that being said, Crystal Palace had a 0.93 xG-edge on Norwich City, a 0.13 xG-edge on Liverpool and a 0.46 xG-edge on West Ham.

How many points did they come away from those games with? Just one. Singular one. With the seventh-best conversion rate in the league, that is atrocious luck, and things are bound to change for the London-based side.

With the return of all four of their AFCON players, and positive regression surely due, it’s likely that Palace will see a serious uptick in form in the coming weeks.

Betting Analysis & Pick

OK, remember what I just said about Crystal Palace seeing positive regression in the coming weeks? Scratch that for this game.

The quality performances against Liverpool and West Ham came at home, where Palace have shown themselves to be much more capable. On the road, the Eagles’ -0.86 xG/game differential is one of the worst in the league, and Brentford’s -0.13 xG/game number at home looks strong in comparison.

At -125, the draw no bet price on Brentford is quite appealing, considering they come into this game in dire need of a result and will be at home in a stadium where they have held the xG edge in their last two outings.

I’ll be looking for the Bees to pick up their first win since the second day of the year.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-125)

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