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Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Including Lyon & Brest (Feb. 12-13)

Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Including Lyon & Brest (Feb. 12-13) article feature image
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Marcio Machado/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Lyon standout Moussa Dembélé, left, plays in a match.

Ligue 1 returns this week, and the featured game on the slate is set to occur Friday in the French capital.

Paris Saint-Germain takes on Rennes ahead of its Champions League knockout stage debut for the year, while all other teams will be in action on Saturday and Sunday.

Though the title isn’t really in doubt, the gap between second and sixth is just seven points, and the space from 16th to last is just three points, so there’s still much to play for in France.

Check out below for betting analysis of the aforementioned PSG fixture, as well as one for each day of the weekend. Will the Parisians be able to continue their run of form in the league and who else presents an enticing number?

Ligue 1 Best Bets

PSG vs. Rennes

PSG Odds -175
Rennes Odds +475
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +120)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
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The Parisians head into this game following a 5-1 road drubbing of Lille. The score is probably slightly generous to PSG, but it reflects the overall flow of the game, as Mauricio Pochettino’s men dominated from start to finish.

The global power now sits 13 points clear of second-place Marseille, and with just 15 games to go in the league, it’s hard to imagine anyone catching this side. That could play a role in this match, as PSG will have an eye toward its Champions League knockout-stage home game Tuesday against Real Madrid.

Rennes enters the match having picked up three points last weekend against Brest, but its away form has been poor as of late. Zero points from its last three away matches is a disservice to their performances, particularly against Clermont Foot where Rennes held a 2.49-1.10 xG edge, but the point remains.

The question is, how much of a role will motivation and rest play in this fixture? Will Pochettino opt to sit key players ahead of the UCL clash? With Neymar, Sergio Ramos, Gini Wijnaldum, Mauro Icardi and Angel di Maria already out, he might opt for the cautious path.

Considering PSG’s 0.87 xG/game differential at home this year is only 0.5 better than Rennes’ road 0.37 xG/match differential, getting the underdog at +140 on the spread is too good to pass up given the circumstances.

Pick: Rennes +0.5 (+140)

Lyon vs. Nice

Lyon Odds -105
Nice Odds +270
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
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Another intriguing fixture comes between Lyon and Nice, with both sides looking for points to sneak into or maintain a Champions League position.

For Lyon, it’s a bit of an uphill battle, considering Les Gones are currently in eighth and eight points shy of Nice, who is coincidentally in that final UCL position. Nice has had an excellent campaign, and its position in the table is reflective of that, but some regression is likely coming for a side that is ninth in xG and sixth in xGA this season.

This is a good spot to try and take advantage of that. Nice is actually posting a negative xG differential as it stands away from home, and Lyon’s 0.39 home differential creates a serious edge.

Nice is certainly the healthier side, but when the three-way moneyline lists Lyon at a near Pick’em price, there’s no question that is where the value lies.

Pick: Lyon ML (-105)

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Brest vs. Troyes

Brest Odds -105
Troyes Odds +240
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -130)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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While the final game here might not be the most enticing, with the teams placed 13th and 16th, respectively, it still presents a good opportunity.

From a pure numbers perspective, there’s a clear edge to Brest that’s being underpriced. The home side has a 0.27 xG/game differential at home, while Troyes is averaging -0.44 xGDiffon the road, so much like the Lyon vs. Nice match, I really like the price on Brest.

These sides drew in the reverse fixture just over a month ago, and since then Brest has been able to pick up just three points — and two goals — in the league. Don’t let that fool you, though. Its win came against Lyon at the Stade Francis Le Ble, while its other home fixture in that span was a 3-0 loss despite having an xG edge.

Back the home side to secure all three points.

Pick: Brest ML (-105)

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