Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Brentford vs. Everton Betting Preview
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Toney.
Brentford vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+120 / -140)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Brentford returns home to West London on Sunday after a thrilling 3-3 draw with Newcastle to play hosts to Everton. The Bees have won none of their last five games in the Premier League, losing four of those matches.
After the Bees stunned the league with an opening day home win against Arsenal, then nearly took down Liverpool at the Brentford Community Stadium, the league took notice of the newcomers. But the fall back down to earth has been a bit unfortunate for a team who is still playing at a solid level despite some recent injuries.
The visiting Toffees have problems of their own under manager Rafa Benitez, who have similarly fallen off following a stellar start to the season. Everton won three of its four games in the league and rocketed to the top of the table to begin the year, but the slide has commenced since then though, and Everton is winless in its last six league games.
Both teams are desperate to end their winless runs, but Everton’s mounting injuries and suspensions make it difficult for them to cope with Brentford’s talent edge.
Brentford Due For Better Results
Brentford has had a tough run of luck lately based on expected goals and is sitting much lower than they should be based on its performances. I’ve written about the Bees’ probable defensive regression that was coming in the past, given their numbers last season in the championship and style of play.
The defense has slipped in recent weeks, conceding two to Leicester City, three goals to Burnley and Newcastle and two to Norwich City. Even with that, though, the Bees continue to have very solid numbers across the board and are generally due for some positive regression in the table.
Despite being 14th in the table, Brentford is sixth in the expected goals difference per 90. They’ve gone toe-to-toe with Liverpool and Chelsea in the last two months, beat West Ham and outplayed both Wolves and Aston Villa.
The Brentford attack is centered around two players — Bryan Mbeumo and Ivan Toney. The two of them combine really well together, complement each other’s games well and average a combined 0.67 xG per 90 this season.
The Bees are stellar on attacking set pieces too, an area where Everton has really struggled. Brentford relies heavily on counter-attacking football and crosses to get its goals, the latter of which Everton has struggled to prevent from coming into the penalty area.
Despite injuries to goalkeeper David Raya and defender Kristoffer Ajer, part of the cause of the Brentford defensive struggles, the Bees are the much healthier side entering Sunday.
Everton Missing Several Key Players
Everton is facing a serious injury and suspension crisis at the moment with a number of key starters out at both ends of the pitch.
Center back Yerry Mina is out with an injury, and Mason Holgate is suspended from the match due to a recent red card. In the attack, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are unavailable, while Abdoulaye Doucoure, Allan and Demarai Gray are all questionable and it’s unclear if they’ll make the starting XI on Sunday.
The Toffees have coped with injuries for the better part of the last two seasons and don’t have much squad depth to speak of. They’ve managed without Calvert-Lewin, but no Richarlison means that Salomón Rondón is likely to be the starter up top and he’s had very mediocre numbers.
Rondón has averaged just 0.1 xG per 90 in five games this season and Everton has relied heavily on production from guys like Gray and Andres Townsend. Those guys have way overperformed expectations at this point in the season and as regression comes for them, it’s likely to follow for an Everton attack that hasn’t been particularly good to begin with.
Everton has relied heavily on crossing this season to generate any of its attack, and that is a viable way to get after Brentford given the Bees poor numbers against them. But the Toffees are just 11th in non-penalty expected goals, 14th in big scoring chances and do not do well against teams who press them high and don’t allow them to play out from the back.
The defense has been relatively solid, but has been allowing more big scoring chances of late and that’s a major problem against a Brentford attack that is excellent at combining in space to create high-quality looks at goal.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Toney and Mbeumo should be able to wreak havoc on the Everton makeshift backline, while the Bees work rate (first in ball recoveries) should overwhelm the Toffees and prevent them from finding easy chances on the counterattack.
Brentford has a clear edge on set pieces, an edge in crossing and has better attacking talent available to them on Sunday.
My projection makes the Toffees +100 to win this game at home and given all of the injuries for Everton, it’s hard to see how the Toffees’ backups and reserves will be able to cope with the Bees’ high-energy output at home and far superior attacking quality.
I’d play Brentford at +110 odds or better via the moneyline wager in this matchup.
Pick: Brentford ML (+125)
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