Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: Tottenham vs. Southampton Betting Preview
Visonhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham standouts (left to right): Dejan Kulusevski, Harry Kane and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.
Spurs vs. Southampton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165 / +120)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In its first full season under manager Antonio Conte, Tottenham hosts Southampton on Saturday for a season-opening Premier League clash.
Last season, the visiting Saints proved a challenging opponent for Conte and his men. At St. Mary’s Stadium, Southampton earned a 1-1 draw despite playing down a man. Then, in North London, it captured a thrilling 3-2 victory.
So, will Tottenham get its revenge or will Southampton continue its points streak? Let’s dive into our preview and see where we can find betting value.
Last season under Conte, Spurs’ most sizeable improvement came in their home results.
Under former boss Nuno Espírito Santo, Tottenham was 3-2-0 (W-L-D) with a -1.4 xGDiff overall. In its remaining 14 fixtures under Conte, it was 10-3-1 (W-L-D) with a +18.1 xGDiff, per fbref.com.
Additionally, Spurs created at least 1.5 expected goals in all but one of those 14 matches and held all but five opponents under one xG as well. Plus, prior to its 3-2 defeat last February, Tottenham won five consecutive games against Southampton on home soil.
By The Numbers
- 71 — Percentage of home matches won by Tottenham under Conte.
- 2.17 — Total xG per 90 minutes for Spurs at home under Conte.
Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl will hope to forget the finish to last season.
From March onward, the Saints only picked up five points from a possible 36 points. They were particularly horrific on the road during that span. In six such matches, Southampton was 0-4-2 (W-L-D) with all four losses coming by at least two goals.
That trend was indicative over the course of the season as well. Last campaign, Southampton possessed the third-worst road defense in the English top flight and the seventh-worst road xGDiff, per fbref.com.
Just against the Big Six last season, Southampton conceded 2.05 xG/90 minutes when playing away from home. Further, the Saints are 1-7-4 (W-L-D) at Big Six sides over the last two seasons and lost six of seven contests by two-plus goals.
By The Numbers
- 18 — Southampton’s ranking in the road xGA table the last two seasons.
- 8 — Number of times the Saints have conceded at least 1.5 xG at the Big Six over the last two campaigns.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Some might choose to steer clear of Tottenham as a result of its defeat against Southampton last season, but I expect the side run up the score.
Following the departure of Armando Broja for Chelsea, I have a lot of questions about the Saints’ attack entering the season. And given their historical defensive road struggles, I expect a rejuvenated Tottenham attack will dominate the ball and generate the lion’s share of chances.
Additionally, Spurs finished last year 9-1-0 (W-L-D) at home against bottom-half sides, with this lone loss their only in reality and on expected goals. The favorites also created 2.07 xG/90 minutes in those affairs and allowed only 0.91 xGA/90, which were improvements upon their season-long averages.
Lastly, Southampton has lost its road opener each of the last four seasons. For those reasons, I’m backing Tottenham on the alternative spread line via the Asian Handicap and to clear its team total.
The Picks: Tottenham -1.5 (+100) | Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+135)
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