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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions, Best Bets: Can Southampton Shock Liverpool in EPL Showdown?

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions, Best Bets: Can Southampton Shock Liverpool in EPL Showdown? article feature image
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Roland Krivec/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool standout Mohamed Salah.

  • Southampton hosts Liverpool in Tuesday's crucial Premier League showdown.
  • The Reds are in desperate need of all three points if they want to have a shot at catching Manchester City for the title.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing Southampton to cover the big spread on home soil.

Southampton vs. Liverpool Odds

Southampton Odds +625
Liverpool Odds -275
Draw +425
Over/Under 3.5 (+105 / -145)
Day | Time Tuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The door to the Premier League title was cracked slightly for Liverpool after Manchester City dropped two points to West Ham United in a draw last time out. Now, the Reds look to put the pressure on the Cityzens in Tuesday’s lone fixture on the road at Southampton.

Atop the EPL table, Liverpool sits four points behind Man City with a game in hand. Southampton is safe in 15th place in the English top flight, putting the club clear of Leeds United, Burnley and Everton. That said, the Saints will be looking to play home spoilers.

So, where does the value lie in this midweek clash? Let’s take a look.

Southampton Could Play Spoiler Role

At this point in the season, all Southampton has left to play for is pride and building positive momentum to take into next year’s campaign. The side also has a chance to end the Premier League title race once and for all.

Better yet, the Saints will want to retrieve a bit of pride from their prior meeting with Liverpool, when it was thrashed in a 4-0 rout after leading 3-0 at the break. In that fixture, the Reds had a 3.07-0.97 expected-goal differential, putting the pressure on early and never allowing Southampton a breath.

Fortunately for Southampton, it won’t have to go into one of the most difficult environments in the sport. Rather, it’ll be back in a place where it earned three points in this match just a year ago.

There, it was an early Danny Ings goal that separated Southampton for the entire contest. And it was a solid performance where the Saints limited the Reds to 1.35 xG in the win. That said, it will take a similar effort in this spot.

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Liverpool Needing All Three Points

The Reds looked down and out after dropping points to Tottenham, but Man City offered a lifeline when it went down 2-0 to West Ham. For a moment, Liverpool was about to have a chance to draw itself back into the league lead without needing help, but the Cityzens scraped back a draw.

Now, Liverpool isn’t completely out, but it’ll take more dropped points for it to have a title shot. The other concern for manager Jürgen Klopp is the fitness of his squad, which took a significant hit against Chelsea in the FA Cup final.

Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk were both substituted off before the end of the game, while Fabinho missed out with a hamstring problem. Those are three key players for Liverpool, and it’s possible that Klopp opts to rest more players in an attempt to keep the squad fit before the Champions League final.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If this was a fixture placed in the middle of the season with healthy squads, it would be easy to side with the Reds to win in a convincing manner. However, this is a unique situation.

Liverpool is dealing with injuries and a focus that’s set on the Champions League final in less than two weeks, while this is the premier remaining fixture for Southampton.

Southampton’s xG/game differential at Saint Mary’s is -.01, while Liverpool has posted a road 0.93 number on the season. However, this version of Liverpool is going to be short-handed in the biggest of ways.

At very minor juice, I’ll back Southampton to keep things close in a favorable situation.

Pick: Southampton +1.5 (-115)

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