Everton vs. Leicester City Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions for Wednesday Match(Dec. 16)

Everton vs. Leicester City Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions for Wednesday  Match(Dec. 16) article feature image
Credit:

Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Godfrey, Dominic Calvert-Lewin

  • Leicester City are favorites to beat Everton in their Premier League encounter on Wednesday afternoon at the King Power Stadium.
  • Both clubs looked impressive in winning efforts over the weekend but Dillon Essma thinks the home side has more value to get all three points:

Everton at Leicester Odds

Everton Odds +230 [BET NOW]
Leicester City Odds +116 [BET NOW]
Draw +255 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.75 (-113/-107) [BET NOW]
Time Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
TV Peacock Premium
Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two clubs looking to build off impressive wins meet on Wednesday as Everton head to the East Midlands to take on third-place Leicester City.

The Toffees seemingly got their season back on track with a win over Chelsea on Saturday, but their recent form has been a bit all over the place with two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five matches. Leicester have also been a bit up and down of late with two wins and two losses in their last four contests.

Which side is worth a bet on Wednesday?

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Leicester City

Even though they fell out of the top-four on the last day of the season, 2019/20 was a rousing success for Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester City. The Foxes were able to continue the momentum into the new season.

The expectations are high for Leicester considering the roster is good enough to challenge for a top-six spot, but the Foxes have dealt with a bunch of injuries to key players like center-back Caglar Soyuncu, right-back Ricardo Pereira and defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi, so their 8-0-4 (W-D-L) record through 12 games is quite impressive.

The good news is that Ndidi returned to play an integral role against Brighton, the bad news is that Leicester’s defense will be without Soyuncu, Johnny Evans and likely Timothy Castagne.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


All the lineup shuffling makes Leicester a tough team to handicap. Their underlying data is not all that impressive, the Foxes rank 12th in the league in non-penalty expected goals differential (npxGD) at -1.42, and have been the beneficiaries from the uptick in penalty kicks in the Premier League this season. Leicester have attempted and scored more PKs than any other team in the division.

Without those , Leicester have struggled to create significant chances. That said, the Foxes did post a +1.1 npxGD in a gritty win over Sheffield United and a +0.85 npxGD in their 3-0 victory over Brighton.

Ndidi’s return to the lineup could provide the boost needed for Leicester to go on a run, but as is always the case with the Foxes their success will come down to Jamie Vardy and Ryan Maddison finishing off chances in the final third.

Everton

After a hot start, Everton have been a mixed bag of late. A lot of the inconsistency can be attributed to injuries, but the Toffees do look like they’ve found some form over their last four matches. Like Leicester, Everton’s top XI can compete with any team in the league, the problem is that it’s rare for a team to stay healthy for a whole season so you need depth — something Everton lack — to battle through the rough patches.

The Toffees will be without James Rodriguez, Lucas Digne and Seamus Coleman on Wednesday, but Carlo Ancellotti’s side was able to overcome those losses in a well-played win over Chelsea on Saturday. It is worth noting that Everton reverted back to a 4-3-3 in that win after a few weeks unsuccessfully playing with five in the back.

Everton boast a +3.4 npxGD on the season, which is good enough for eighth in the Premier League. The Toffees are 2-1-1 with a +0.32 xGD over their last four matches but only one of those matches, a 1-0 win over Chelsea, came against superior opposition.

Everton vs. Leicester Betting Pick

This a pretty tough match to handicap. The congested schedule, injuries and inconsistent form of both teams makes this a tough game to call, but I still think there’s value on Leicester at plus-money on Wednesday afternoon.

The Foxes took their game to a new level with Wilfred Ndidi back and I think Everton will struggle to create enough offense to match Vardy and Maddison. James and Digne are Everton’s two best play-makers, so the Foxes should have a decent chance of pulling this one out.

The Bet: Leicester City ML (+116)

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