English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Everton vs. Norwich City Preview (Wednesday, June 24)

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Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Richarlison

  • Updated EPL odds list Everton as a big favorite over last-place Norwich City, with the total set at 2.5.
  • Brad Cunningham's model makes Everton an even bigger favorite, so he's laying -110 in this Wednesday afternoon clash.

Everton at Norwich City Odds, Pick

Everton odds -110 (BET NOW)
Norwich City odds +300 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +265 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (-118/-106)
(BET NOW)
Time Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Time is running out on Norwich City. The Canaries are in last place and will need to put together a string of results if they want to pull off a great escape. A win over Everton would be a big start as it could put Norwich within three points of safety.

Everton are sitting in the middle of the table and really don’t have much to play for on Wednesday. The Toffees are coming off an impressive 0-0 draw against Liverpool, so it will be interesting to see if Carlo Ancelotti’s men can build off that performance.

Norwich City

It’s been a terrible season for the Canaries in their return to the Premier League. With only 21 points from 30 matches, relegation looks all but certain for Daniel Farke’s bunch.

It’s hard to narrow down Norwich’s issues to one thing, as so much has gone wrong for the Canaries in 2019-20. They rank last in the league with 13.58 expected points and are 17th in both expected goals for and against.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


The Canaries looked woeful in a 3-0 loss to Southampton last week, but that wasn’t all that surprising considering where their form was heading into the hiatus. Norwich has now taken just eight of a possible 30 points in their last 10 games and they’ve been severely outplayed, giving up 18.81 expected goals while only generating 11.24.

It’s difficult to see how the Canaries will be able to hang with Everton if the Toffees are in form.

Everton

Everton put together a fantastic performance against crosstown rivals Liverpool on Sunday, holding the league-leaders to a 0-0 draw. The Toffees were able to win the expected goals battle 1.19 to 0.71, which is rare sight for Liverpool to see this year.


EPL PROMO! Bet $1, Win $50 if ANY team scores this week. (There are 10 games total…)


Everton have really started to find a groove under Carlo Ancelotti. The Toffees are creating an average of 2.08 expected goals for and conceding 1.29 expected goals against in 13 matches under the Italian. And in their last five away matches Everton are averaging a robust 2.11 xG for per match.

Analysis

Everton are deserved favorites in this game but my numbers actually suggest that the price on the Toffees should be even shorter on Wednesday:

  • Norwich projected odds: +407 (19.71% win probability)
  • Everton projected odds: -140 (58.28%)
  • Draw projected odds: +354 (22.01%)
  • Norwich projected xG: 1.07
  • Everton projected xG: 1.92

Based on those numbers, I think there’s value on Everton to grab all three points at Carrow Road.

Pick: Everton (-110)
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