Tottenham vs. Manchester United Odds, Pick, Prediction: A Side and Prop for EPL Showdown
Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United standout Edinson Cavani.
- Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United square off in Saturday's featured Premier League match (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
- The Red Devils enter this affair as the favorite, despite suffering a 5-0 blowout loss against Liverpool last time out.
- Tottenham sits seventh in the table while Man United is eighth, just four points from the bottom quarter of the table.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down his Manchester United vs. Tottenham pick below.
Spurs vs. Man U Odds
|Man United Odds||+140|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +105)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBC | Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet Saturday in the highest-profile Premier League match of the weekend. The seventh- and eighth-place teams in the table both need a win to make their way toward the top.
Spurs enter the game fresh off a 1-0 win over Burnley in a midweek Carabao Cup Round of 16 tussle, but things haven’t been going particularly well for the hosts in the English top flight of late.
They dropped a 1-0 decision to West Ham United in last week’s game, meaning they’ve lost four of their last six league outings.
How the line has moved: Manchester United opened at +110, but their price has gone up to around +130, depending on the sportsbook. The betting action is split almost 50-50.
On the other side, all the talk in the lead-up to this affair has surrounded manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his future with the Red Devils. Solskjaer watched his side get obliterated by Liverpool in a 5-0 shellacking on Old Trafford’s soil in front of a stunned group of supporters last Sunday, with fans and pundits alike believing the former star player would be sacked.
Yet, that wasn’t the case as Solskjaer is still in charge ahead of this clash and seems to have the support of everyone associated with the storied club, including legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson.
The decision from main part of Manchester United board is now confirmed/approved. My understanding is Ole Gunnar Solskjær will definitely be in charge for Tottenham game on Saturday 🔴 #MUFC
Ferguson supported him. Ole also spoke to players today. Next games will be crucial. pic.twitter.com/rx7TrnMw5K
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 26, 2021
Despite the blowout defeat, oddsmakers have installed Manchester United as the slight road favorite at +140 odds on the three-way moneyline. Tottenham sits at +180, with the draw at solid +260 odds as of this writing.
Let’s take a look at this matchup and see where the betting value sits.
Spurs Looking for More Consistent Performances
Win or lose, there’s nothing in between for Tottenham. The club has five league wins this season but suffered four defeats as well with no draws.
Spurs have consistently struggled to generate quality scoring chances during their league matches, which was clearly the case in the loss to West Ham at London Stadium. They managed just 0.7 expected goals compared to the 1.3 xG the Hammers finished with in the triumph.
🎙 "We have to learn from it and move on from it, we've got plenty of games coming up."
Harry Kane reacts to our defeat to West Ham. ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/FmAA1NtiXG
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) October 24, 2021
Maintaining control of the ball hasn’t been an issue of late, though. The North London outfit has won the possession war in its last five matches across all competitions, clearing the 60-percent mark in the past three fixtures where the statistic was recorded. Playing out of its typical 4-2-3-1 formation helps, but goals have been simply hard to come by at the same time.
When it comes to the advanced metrics, Tottenham has managed a paltry 9.6 xG and conceded a subpar 11.8 xGA, resulting in a -2.2 xG difference and -0.24 xGDiff per 90 minutes. Son Heung-min leads Spurs with four goals, but Harry Kane has struggled out of the gate and has just one goal in eight appearances.
Man United Needing Victory in Biggest Way
Solskjaer had to be stunned after the beatdown his lads experienced against the Reds. Mohamed Salah (three goals and an assist) and Liverpool dominated the xG battle, finishing with a 3.8-1.6 advantage in the category. So, saying the Red Devils were a hot mess in the back would be an understatement.
Yet, perhaps the biggest news ahead of this confrontation is the likely return of French international Raphael Varane. The star center back has been sidelined since his return to Manchester after picking up a knock on international duty.
Solskjaer would love to have the defender leading the back line after what had to be one of his most embarrassing games with the club. Varane returned to training (see tweet below for proof), which would definitely shore things up in front of goaltender David de Gea.
— Manchester United (@ManUtd) October 27, 2021
As for the statistical data, Manchester United has accumulated 13.7 xG and conceded a dismal 14.8 xGA, generating a relatively flat -1.1 xGDiff and -0.12 xGDiff/90 minutes. The Red Devils’ xGA is one of the worst in the league, sitting tied for 16th overall with 18th-place Burnley.
Bottom line, Manchester United needs to get things fixed in the back and get them fixed quickly if there’s any chance it’s going to make a run at the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City at the top of the table.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Honestly, I didn’t think Solskjaer would make it to Sunday dinner after that debacle at Old Trafford. I figured he would have been fired or forced to resign, making way from someone like Antonio Conte or Brendan Rodgers.
Yet, the embattled manager will be roaming this sideline in this ultra-crucial showdown, and that actually has me believing we’re going to see a much better performance from the Red Devils against another side searching for answers.
That said, I’m backing Manchester United on the Draw No Bet wager at -135 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. All signs leading up to this match point toward a legend (Ferguson), the club’s board and — most importantly — the players backing Solskjaer to stay put for the time being. So, I’m comfortable backing Cristiano Ronaldo and the Red Devils in this meeting.
I’m also going to jump on a live prop and play Manchester United to finish the match with the most cards at ripe +140 odds. This is a bad line and the Red Devils should be closer to +110 or lower in my opinion.
Manchester United racked up a stunning seven cards against Liverpool, including a straight red to Paul Pogba. In the four matches prior to that game, the Red Devils accumulated 10 cautions for an average of 2.5 cards per outing. In contrast, Tottenham has just 10 cautions in its last six matches combined. That’s almost a full card less, which makes it worth playing at this price.
Pick: Manchester United — Draw No Bet (-135) | Most Cards — Manchester United (+140)