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Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Odds, Predictions, Picks: Bet Underdog To Keep It Close (Tuesday, May 10)

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Odds, Predictions, Picks: Bet Underdog To Keep It Close (Tuesday, May 10) article feature image
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Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Ollie Watkins.

  • Aston Villa hosts Liverpool in Tuesday's crucial Premier League match.
  • The Reds are in dire need of all three points if they want to stay close in the EPL title race.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the game below and explains why he's backing Aston Villa to get a result.

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Odds

Aston Villa Odds +575
Liverpool Odds -225
Draw +360
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +120)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Liverpool suffered a major blow in its bid to win the Premier League and possibly a quadruple when it dropped points in a draw against Tottenham this past Saturday, but its campaign rolls on Tuesday with a visit to Aston Villa.

The Lions are currently on a three-game unbeaten streak, with two wins on the bounce coming against Norwich City and Burnley.

That said, let’s see where I believe the value lies on the important fixture.

Aston Villa Looking to Finish Strong

When former Liverpool star Steven Gerrard took over as manager for Aston Villa, the baseline mission was to take the team out of a relegation battle and into a comfortable position in the league table. He passed that test with flying colors, and Villa now sits in 11th place.

Wins over Burnley and Norwich City have helped provide a positive aura around the club as it cruises towards the end of the season, a result in this fixture would be a massive statement of intent for the year to come.

Famously, the most recent home EPL fixture for Aston Villa against Liverpool served as one of the latter’s biggest losses in the history of the competition. The Villans routed the Reds to the tune of seven goals — and humiliation — for one of the best teams in English history.

A similar outcome would be an even greater shock, but even a point would be heavily welcomed in Birmingham.

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Liverpool Facing Dilemma Down Stretch

Heading into the prior weekend, it seemed to be a very real possibility that Liverpool could become the first team in English history to win the quadruple. However, a draw against Tottenham and Manchester City win set the Reds three points behind the Cityzens with three games to play.

That doesn’t mean Liverpool is out of the title picture, but City now sits at a strong -1000 to secure the title while Liverpool is +700 odds. However, that’s the only competition left for City to compete in and Liverpool has two more finals to play.

The FA Cup final is this weekend and Liverpool battles Chelsea for the second domestic cup final. The Reds took the Carabao Cup a few months ago, and the last team to win both titles in a season was Manchester City, who secured the domestic treble on the season.

It makes for some interesting decisions to be made by Jurgen Klopp regarding team selection and strategy, but he’s vowed to keep Liverpool pushing for the league as cup finals are on the horizon.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If Liverpool was in pole position to take the EPL title, I would have likely side with a team featuring some of the most ruthless players in the league, but in this situation I’ll rely on the numbers to guide me.

Aston Villa has posted a 0.1 xG/game differential on the season at home, while Liverpool sits at 1.09 away from Anfield. In its last five home games, Villa has amassed an even better 0.47 clip, and it’ll be a bit fresher having played two games since April 27 while Liverpool has played four matches.

This is a tight selection, and I do think Liverpool is one of the most focused teams in the world, but getting 1.5 goals is a bit hefty for a Villa team that has a singular focus and is fairly consistent on home soil.

Pick: Aston Villa +1.5 (-140)

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