Wednesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Can Leicester City Down Norwich City in EPL Matchup?
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City standout Kelechi Iheanacho.
- Leicester City takes on Norwich City in Wednesday's meeting at King Power Stadium.
- The Foxes are heavy home favorites against the relegated Canaries.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the game below and gives top selection.
Leicester vs. Norwich Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-160 / +115)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Other than pride, there will be virtually nothing to play for Wednesday when 14th-place Leicester City welcomes 20th-place Norwich City to King Power Stadium for their Premier League matchup.
Both teams arrive in poor form and looking to right the ship. The Foxes are winless in five games and only have three wins in their last 10 contests. As for the Canaries, they have lost four in a row and only have two results in their last 10 fixtures.
The reverse meeting at Carrow Road — all the way back on Aug. 28 — saw Leicester emerge with a 2-1 victory.
Leicester Having Good Run of Bad Luck
Little has gone right for Leicester City over the last few months, as it has seen its table position decline.
Manager Brendan Rodgers’s attack has proven inconsistent at best since March. Since then, it has only created more than 1.5 expected goals twice and has posted four outputs under 0.5 xG, per fbref.com.
On the flip side, the Leicester defense has played abysmal soccer in that same timespan. Over those 11 contests, the Foxes have allowed 1.42 xG per 90 minutes and only held one opponent under one xG in the process. Just in its last four outings, Leicester has allowed three opponents to create at least 1.5 xG, again per fbref.com.
The one potential piece of positive news for Leicester? Those metrics have improved at home. Over its last four EPL games at King Power, the Foxes have conceded only 1.2 xG/90 minutes and created at least one xG in three outings.
However, this is still a Leicester side that’s a candidate for negative regression at home. Entering this contests, Leicester owns a +5 home goal differential against a -3.3 home xGDiff overall.
Nothing Going Right for Relegated Norwich
Norwich City is without question the worst Premier League side, but the last month or two have proven disastrous, particularly on the defensive front.
Since its meeting with Manchester City on Feb. 12, the Canaries have held zero opponents at less than 1.9 xG and have allowed seven of 12 opponents to create at least 2.5 xG, per fbref.com.
Meanwhile, its attack has lagged behind and not given many worries to opposing defenses. In those same 12 games, manager Dean Smith’s club has generated more than one xG only five times.
It also owns the worst road goal-scoring record in the English top flight, as it has generated only 13.9 xG through 17 road matches. Further, Norwich has created under 0.5 xG in two of its last three road affairs and had more than one xG in two of its last eight road fixtures.
The only potential good news for Norwich is that it’s due for some heavy position regression on offense. This season, the Canaries have scored 22 goals on 30.4 xG and 10 road goals on the aforementioned 14 xG overall.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given how inconsistent Leicester City has been of late, I have little faith it can get margin in this match, even against Norwich City.
That has led me to look elsewhere, specifically the prop market. And from where I’m sitting, I think the Both Teams To Score (Yes) wager looks very appealing.
Even though Norwich has failed to score in three consecutive matches, Leicester has only one clean sheet in its last eight games. We know the Canaries will concede based on their poor defensive trends, but it’s also worth noting they have gotten on the board in 10 of 16 games against the league’s 10 worst defenses.
Plus, in the reverse fixture at Carrow Road, Norwich generated 1.6 xG and two big scoring chances against Leicester. Add in the fact the Foxes have the best BTTS percentage in the league this season (68 percent), and I’m going to hold my nose and back that market.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-120)
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