Brighton vs. Liverpool Odds, Predictions: 2 Best Bet Picks for Wednesday’s Premier League Match

Brighton vs. Liverpool Odds

It's been a season to remember for Premier League champion Liverpool as it chases the 30th victory of its campaign on Wednesday when it faces host Brighton & Hove Albion.

The Reds are a whopping 23 points clear of Manchester City on the league table and can simply enjoy the rest of their historic season. Liverpool, which is second overall in expected goals (66.16) in the league, is coming off a lackluster 2-0 victory against lowly Aston Villa. The Reds were not at their best in the win following the 4-0 drubbing it suffered against Manchester City in the match before the Villa win, so I am sure manager Jürgen Klopp was happy to see his club quickly get back to its winning form.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Brighton, currently 12th in expected goals (42.01), are coming off a monster 1-0 win against Norwich City on the weekend that helped move it nine points clear of the relegation zone. Manager Graham Potter could not have asked for a better response from the Seagulls, who had suffered a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United prior to the triumph, and now sit in 15th place on the table on 36 points.

Defensively, no one has been better than Liverpool in the Premier League this season: The Reds are tops in expected goals against (32.72) and have produced three shutouts in their last four league contests.

On the other side of the pitch, Brighton has been relatively solid and sits mid-table in expected goals against (47.57) in 10th place. The Seagulls have been relatively stingy as of late, recording three clean sheets in their past five league games.

When it comes to handicapping this match, you really have to put the statistics aside for a moment and ask yourself which club is actually going to be more up for this contest: Is it Liverpool, which has nothing to play for other than league records? Or is it Brighton, which has seemingly done enough to stay in England’s top flight and could potentially cruise along the rest of its campaign?

I lean toward a mixture of both.

Liverpool wants to finish strong and not fizzle out late in a season in which it has won 29 matches against two losses and two draws. When it comes to Brighton, a signature win against the league champion would be icing on the cake, so the club has to be carrying some serious momentum from the Norwich City victory into this match on home soil.

That said, I am backing both clubs to score and the total to go over the number.

Brighton has mustered only three shutouts in 16 home league matches this season and I can't see it silencing Liverpool. And despite being such a defensive juggernaut, the Reds have not been air tight in the back in recent games. Liverpool has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches away from Anfield across all competitions, which could lead to some fireworks at American Express Community Stadium.

Brighton vs. Liverpool Tale of the Tape

• Liverpool is averaging 1.8 goals per game on the road in the league this season.
• Brighton has conceded the first goal in six of its last seven home games across all competitions.
• Liverpool has won its last seven matches against Brighton across all competitions.
• Brighton is averaging 1.1 goals per game at home in league action this season.