Premier League Week 37 Odds and Betting Preview: Public Fading Liverpool in Must-Win Match

Premier League Week 37 Odds and Betting Preview: Public Fading Liverpool in Must-Win Match article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool’s Mo Salah against Manchester City

  • The Premier League is down to the final two weeks of the season and there's still an incredible battle for the title between Manchester City and Liverpool.
  • Man City hold a one-point lead and are -500 favorites to win the title while Liverpool are being offered at +350 to hoist the trophy.
  • We break down the entire betting market for EPL Week 37 including Liverpool-Newcastle (Saturday, 2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports) and Man City-Leicester City (Monday, 3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports).

Premier League Week 37 stretches from Friday-Monday, and every match will have an impact on the league table, whether it’s at the top or bottom.

Before diving into this weekend’s action, let’s take a look at how the EPL has unfolded from a betting standpoint this season.

2018-19 Betting Results

  • Draws were finally profitable in Week 37 but they’re still down more than -100 units on the season.
  • Home teams have been more successful than road clubs which has been the case for the last three years now.
  • Favorites and underdogs are both still profitable on the moneyline due to a nice balance of consistent chalk and big upsets.
  • Crystal Palace (+15.77 units), Leicester City (+15.08 u) and Wolves (+10.70 u) are the most profitable moneyline clubs this season.
  • Huddersfield (-20.65 u) and Fulham (-14.62 u) are still the least profitable clubs on the year.

Week 37 Odds and Betting Breakdown

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Manchester City (-600) are the biggest favorites in Week 37, although they do face one of the most profitable clubs of the season, Leicester City.

Liverpool are -275 favorites at Newcastle, a game they have to win, but it could be a tricky one considering their Champions League semifinal schedule against Barcelona.

Public Bets

  • 64% on Crystal Palace (+170) at Cardiff City
  • 62% on Huddersfield (+825) vs. Manchester United
  • 61% on Tottenham (-110) at Bournemouth
  • 53% on Newcastle (+900) vs. Liverpool

Public bettors are clearly attracted toward the underdogs this weekend with three of the four most lopsided bets on clubs that are +170 or higher.

Huddersfield (+825) and Newcastle (+900) are both receiving more than half the wagers which is surprising considering how popular Manchester United and Liverpool usually are. The public may be onto something, though, since the final weeks of the season have historically been the best for big ‘dogs:

(All historical betting systems and data can be found with the Bet Labs software)

The most popular bet of the weekend has been Crystal Palace (+170) against Cardiff City, and it makes sense considering Palace’s form over the last month.

They’ve picked up seven points in four games which includes a win at Arsenal, while also playing two close matches against Man City and Tottenham. Meanwhile, Cardiff have been shutout in four of the last five matches including bad losses at Burnley and at Fulham.

Sharp Action

  • Wolves (-185) vs. Fulham
  • Manchester City (-600) vs. Leicester City
  • Southampton (+210) at West Ham
  • Newcastle-Liverpool Draw (+420)

Sharp money has been all over the board this weekend with bets on two favorites (Wolves -185 and Man City -600), an underdog (Southampton +210), and the Newcastle-Liverpool draw (+420).

Odds have moved toward all four moneylines despite a low percentage of wagers on each. Obviously Wolves and Man City are being offered at steep prices, but smart action hasn’t strayed away.

The Newcastle-Liverpool draw is notable since dropped points by the Reds would essentially hand Manchester City the title. Despite the importance of the match, sharp bettors lean toward Newcastle stealing a result at home.

Value Plays (EPL Season Record: 42-83-1, -22.51 units)

  • Everton (-145) vs. Burnley
  • Southampton (+210) at West Ham
  • Newcastle-Liverpool Draw (+420)

Want live updates of the action all weekend? Follow @actionnetsoccer on Twitter for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.