PSG vs Dortmund Odds, Preview, Picks | Champions League Predictions
Christian Liewig/Getty. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
|Borussia Dortmund Odds||+320|
|Over / Under|
-275 / +220
Group F in the Champions League is one of the most difficult in the history of the competition. Points will be at a premium as PSG, Dortmund, Newcastle and AC Milan battle for two spots in the knockout stage. PSG and Dortmund are the two clubs with the most recent success in the competition, and the Parisians are the favorites to win the group at +110. Dortmund have drifted in the oddsmakers' eyes and they are now projected to finish last in the group.
One major reason for the skepticism in Dortmund has been their start in the Bundesliga. The German side dropped points in consecutive matches to Bochum and Heidenheim, who are relegation-level teams. Edin Terzic's side has struggled to put together a full 90 minutes of solid soccer since losing both Jude Bellingham and Raphael Guerrero in the summer transfer window to Real Madrid and Bayern, respectively.
PSG have been up and down under new manager Luis Enrique too. They've dropped points in three of their first five matches in Ligue 1, including a puzzling 3-1 home loss to Nice on Friday heading into this match. The market has responded to that loss, with PSG drifting from as high as -165 on the three-way moneyline down to the current price near -130.
Let's get into PSG vs Dortmund in the Champions League.
Kylian Mbappé wasn't ready for the start of the season for PSG, but it hasn't taken the star forward long to find his form. Mbappé has seven goals in his first 3.4 90s this season and five if you take out penalties from the numbers. He's produced at a ridiculous level in three matches against Lyon, Lens and Nice, who were all talented top half teams last year in Ligue 1. He's at 0.75 non-penalty xG + xA per 90.
PSG have been clearly downgraded in the market for losing Lionel Messi and Neymar, but the replacements have done an excellent job of replacing the production. Ousmané Dembele is fit right now, and when he's fit, there are few better ball progressors and wide forwards in the world. He's at eight shots and 0.75 xG + xA per 90 in less than three matches. New signing Gonçalo Ramos has produced nine shots in three matches too.
There's a good chance that PSG's attack is better this season than it was last year because of better off ball work rate, more high turnovers and a better fit of attacking talent with Ramos, Dembele and Mbappe as the front three.
They've played five matches in France and conceded more than 1 xGA per match on average. The defensive and midfield solidity concerns still exist, and Dortmund have proven themselves plenty capable of attacking quickly in transition without established possession. PSG don't have a truly elite ball-winner or ball-stopper in their midfield to prevent this game from being relatively open.
Dortmund have only played one team in the Bundesliga that would be rated as above average in the league. The Schwarzgelben beat Freiburg 4-2 in a classic German match on Saturday, conceding 15 shots and two goals to an average attack in the process. The other three matches against Bochum, Köln and Heidenheim saw them concede more than 1 xG in every match despite playing three sides with one combined win in Germany through four match weeks.
They managed to get by with a quite mediocre defense last year en route to their title challenge, but the loss of Bellingham in the midfield has further exposed the cracks in the setup. There's not enough forward line pressing or ball-winning in midfield to consistently stop good teams. When Dortmund have a huge talent gap against their opponent, they naturally will control a lot more of the possession. When they've gone up in class, they've struggled to cope mightily.
Dortmund have conceded at least 2 xG in each of their last six contests, which were matches against RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Bayer Leverkusen. In terms of expected goals conceded, they finished with the seventh-most xGA last year and currently rank seventh this season despite the easy schedule.
PSG vs Dortmund
Pick & Prediction
PSG and Dortmund's attacks both had slow starts in the opening two matches of the season, but it's clear that both have found their best attacking XI and are rounding into form.
Given how porous both midfields are, I'm betting the over 3 at -115 or better. Dortmund don't offer nearly enough resistance or ball-winning out of possession to stop PSG from getting the ball to Mbappé and Dembele in space. Dortmund will get their chances in transition and this total should be 3.25 at a minimum.