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Real Madrid (1-0) and Roma (0-0-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. ET at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.
Real Madrid is favored at a -110 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+110o / -135u) goals.
Let's get into my Real Madrid vs. Roma prediction.
Real Madrid vs. Roma Prediction
Parlay Odds: +102 — DraftKings
- Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-250 at DraftKings)
- Kylian Mbappe to Score (-145 at DraftKings)
My Real Madrid vs. Roma best bets are a same-game parlay with both teams to score and 2.5 total goals, and an extra pick on Kylian Mbappe to score.
Real Madrid vs. Roma Odds
Real Madrid vs. Roma Picks, Parlay
- Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-164 at bet365)
- Kylian Mbappe to Score (-164 at bet365)
Roma have shown impressive attacking firepower this season, especially at home. They have found the back of the net in all three competitive home matches, scoring eight goals. Their recent 2-2 draw with Inter, another top-tier opponent, showcased their ability to compete in high-scoring affairs. In that match, Roma generated an expected goals (xG) of 1.66 while conceding an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.86, pointing toward an open and offensive game plan that should continue against Real Madrid.
Real Madrid also brings a potent attack, averaging 2.33 goals per game this season. Since Mourinho's return, the Spanish giants have yet to secure a clean sheet in a competitive away fixture. This trend, combined with their attacking prowess, makes goals likely. The bet for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has been successful in seven of Madrid's last nine Champions League matches in 2026, a span where games have seen an average of four goals.
For an individual scorer, Kylian Mbappé is the standout choice. The French superstar has been in excellent form, with eight goals in nine appearances across all competitions this season, averaging a goal every 101 minutes.
He already opened his Champions League account on matchday one against Inter, where he was a constant threat with four attempts on target. As the competition's top scorer last season with 15 goals in 11 games, Mbappé has a clear affinity for this stage and will be central to Madrid's attack.
Real Madrid vs. Roma Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Real Madrid | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 51.2% | 23.6% | 25.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Real Madrid | Total Goals | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74 | 2.9 | 1.16 |
Real Madrid vs. Roma Betting Analysis
While Real Madrid boasts an exceptional record against Italian clubs, winning 20 of their last 22 encounters, their recent away form in Europe is less convincing. Los Blancos have won just two of their last five Champions League away games and have already lost twice on the road in domestic competition this season. This creates an opportunity for a strong Roma side that has won eight of its last nine home matches in the Champions League.
Historically, Real Madrid has dominated this head-to-head matchup, winning the last four meetings without conceding a single goal. However, Roma's current form and solid defense — they have conceded the fewest goals in Serie A since the start of the 2025/26 season — suggest they can challenge that trend. Furthermore, Real Madrid's last six Champions League fixtures have all seen over 2.5 goals, indicating their matches are consistently entertaining and high-scoring affairs.
With Mbappé leading the line for Madrid and Roma's proven ability to score at the Stadio Olimpico, the stage is set for a competitive clash where both teams are likely to get on the scoresheet.
