Sampdoria vs. AC Milan Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Bet the Favorite in Monday Serie A Match

Sampdoria vs. AC Milan Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Bet the Favorite in Monday Serie A Match article feature image
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Aitor Alcalde Colomer/Getty Images. Pictured: Ac Milan forward Olivier Giroud.

  • Sampdoria welcomes AC Milan to Luigi Ferraris Stadium for Monday's Serie A matchup.
  • Olivier Giroud joined Milan in the offseason, giving the club another weapon on the offensive side of things.
  • Matthew Trebby breaks down AC Milan vs. Sampdoria below and explains why he's backing the visitors.

Sampdoria vs. AC Milan Odds

Sampdoria Odds +290
AC Milan Odds -105
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Monday | 2:45 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+
Odds updated Sunday afternoon via DraftKings.

After coming close to regaining the Serie A title last season, AC Milan open their new campaign in Genoa on Monday with a match against Sampdoria.

The Rossoneri, who appeared fortunate to finish second in the Italian top flight last season, bring back a relatively familiar squad for the new campaign under manager Stefano Pioli.

Meanwhile, Sampdoria finished 15th in 2019-20 and were just seven points clear of relegation. They bounced back last year, though, with some great fortune and a top-half finish. That result seems unlikely again, although their experience could give them an edge over the rest of the league.

Let’s break this one down.

Experienced Sampdoria Seeking Serie A Upset

Sampdoria finished last season in ninth, but their -9.56 non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGDiff) compared to their actual -2 goal difference indicates some good fortune.

The Genoa side was especially fortunate at home, where they took 30 points from 19 games with a +6 goal difference. Their NPxGDiff, though, was -5.69 for the season.

Part of the reason for Sampdoria’s ability to sneak out results is an experienced core. Winger Antonio Candreva (34 years old) joined the club permanently after a successful loan spell from Inter Milan, while the strike partnership consists of former Southampton striker Manolo Gabbiadini (29) and ageless captain Fabio Quagliarella.

Quagliarella is incredible, having scored double-digit goals in Serie A in each of the past five seasons for Sampdoria. He has averaged 16.2 per campaign during that span.

Fans of Denmark’s run at Euro 2020 will remember Mikkel Damsgaard, whose technical ability stood out and was crucial after the team lost Christian Eriksen. It’s no surprise that there is interest in the Dane throughout Europe, but he’ll likely slot into the left wing for Sampdoria this season and provide those Italian strikers plenty of chances.

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AC Milan Welcomes New Faces in Key Spots

Last season, Milan spent a lot of timecontending with Inter for the Serie A title, but their advanced metrics never indicated they were a real challenger. Milan finished second, but their NPxGDiff was sixth overall.

It sounds like Milan are going to be without 39-year-old superstar Zlatan Ibrahimovic for this game. He’s nearing full fitness, but the club’s medical staff might be more interested in playing it safe against a lesser side like Sampdoria.

Another reason for holding out Ibrahimovic would be that Milan signed another imposing striker over the summer.

Olivier Giroud should fit in very well in Serie A. Although his goalscoring prowess has never been a strength, the Frenchman’s hold-up play is among the best in the world. At 34 years old, he’s more than capable of getting the job done up top.

Hakan Calhanoglu surprisingly moved across Milan to Inter on a free transfer, which opens up a key place in the side. Spaniard Brahim Diaz appears poised to be given the first chance at taking it.

The former Manchester City youth player signed for Milan on a two-year loan after impressing late last season. Expect him and Rafael Leao to provide Giroud the support he needs in attack.

Fikayo Tomori, another loan signing who impressed at Milan last season, has made his permanent move from Chelsea and is likely to lead the defense alongside Simon Kjaer. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan, who won Ligue 1 last season with Lille, was brought in to replace Gianluigi Donnarumma.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I’m not too high on Milan this season because they really didn’t do much over the summer to improve a team that clearly overachieved last season. Adding Giroud is good, but the other key signings were bringing back successful loanees or replacing their star goalkeeper.

With that being said, Sampdoria overachieved even more than Milan last season and could be poised for a relegation battle in the 2021-22 campaign.

Getting Milan at almost a plus number on DraftKings is a good deal. They’ll control the pace of the game, and the Rossoneri’s backline is quite stable. I’ll play them to -115 odds.

Pick: AC Milan ML (-105 | play to -115)

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