Saturday MLS Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Orlando City vs. Inter Miami (Sept. 12)


Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire for Getty Images. Pictured: Orlando City’s Robin Jansson.

Sep 12, 2020, 05:30 PM EDT
  • The next chapter of the Inter Miami-Orlando City rivalry highlights Saturday's MLS slate, and Jeremy Pond expects a dogfight between Florida foes.
  • Can Orlando City extend its four-game unbeaten streak, or will Inter Miami be motivated by the rumored addition of Gonzalo Higuain?
  • Check out Pond's full analysis with updated odds below to see how he is betting this matchup.

Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Odds

Orlando City Odds -120 [BET NOW]
Inter Miami Odds +290 [BET NOW]
Draw +275 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-132/-103) [BET NOW]
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV MLS Live on ESPN+

Odds updated as of Saturday at 5:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Another full slate of matches highlight Saturday’s Major League Soccer card, headlined by the latest chapter in the new rivalry between Orlando City and Inter Miami.

This game will mark the third time these sides will have faced each other in the series, both having secured a victory in the previous two meetings. Orlando City took the debut contest via a 2-1 triumph at the MLS is Back tournament before Inter Miami notched a 3-2 win in its franchise home opener.

Orlando City enters the match in the middle of a four-game unbeaten run, with its most recent game resulting in a 1-1 draw against Atlanta United. Any kind of positive road showing is good in this league, but the Lions had to be disappointed after conceding a late goal and leaving Georgia with just a point.

As for its in-state rival, Inter Miami got the best of that common foe by collecting a 2-1 home victory against Atlanta on Wednesday. Inter Miami received a Herculean effort from goalkeeper Luis Robles, who made two penalty kick saves to highlight the franchise’s second overall win.

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Looking at the data and statistics, Orlando City is one of the top clubs in the league with an impressive 9.4 expected goals and 6.0 expected goals against numbers for a +3.4 xGDiff number, along with a +0.48 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

On the other side, Inter Miami hangs relatively tough with Orlando City in all categories (8.2 xGF/7.4 xGA for +0.8 xGDiff and +0.13 xGDiff/90) and makes this matchup pretty even on the numbers line.

When trying to handicap this fixture, I found it hard finding a side to back. Rivalry games are tough enough to forecast, but it’s even more difficult when there isn’t much history to go on.

The one thing I do believe is that Inter Miami is going to be up for this match, largely due to the rumors tied to the imminent signing of Gonzalo Higuain.

The Argentinian forward reportedly terminated his contract with Serie A powerhouse Juventus and will be taking his talents to South Beach. That is something Inter Miami must surely be thrilled about, which has me believing one of the MLS newbies will be even more pumped for this Orlando City tilt.

That said, I am backing the total to go over the number and both teams to find the back of the net. There has been an average of four goals in the first two matches and I see that trend continuing in this showdown.

The Bets: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-127); Both Teams To Score — Yes (-136)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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