Inter Milan vs. Juventus Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Jan. 17

Inter Milan vs. Juventus Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Jan. 17 article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.

  • Juventus heads east Sunday for its Derby d'Italia showdown with Inter Milan in Serie A play.
  • The Nerazzurri are in fine form, but Cristiano Ronaldo and the visitors have been firing on all cylinders as well.
  • Dillon Essma gives his thoughts on the affair and explains where he sees value in backing Juventus below.

Inter Milan vs. Juventus Odds

Inter Milan Odds +138 [BET NOW]
Juventus Odds +195 [BET NOW]
Draw +240 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120) [BET NOW]
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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It’s a heavyweight matchup on Sunday in Serie A, as Juventus head east to take on Inter Milan.

Juventus enter the match sitting fourth in the table, working to catch up to the two Milan clubs atop the standings. They’ve already made good progress over the last month but an away win over Inter would be massive for their title hopes.

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Inter Milan

Inter Milan enter this game second in the table, just three points behind AC Milan. Inter’s city rivals have been dragging their feet for the last few weeks, in my opinion, and I would say Inter and Juve are the real contenders to win the Scudetto.

Inter’s advanced metrics put them fifth in Italy, with a non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) of +13.20, according to Understat. The good news for Inter is that they don’t have European competition to worry about, so they can focus on the title race.

This team has plenty of talent, and is carried by Romelu Lukaku. Inter rank third in non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) with 1.96 per game. They have shown to be a little more average on the defensive end, with 1.18 non-penalty expected goals against (NPxGA) per game.

Prior to the last two matches, Inter were in very strong form, winning eight straight. A somewhat fluky 2-1 loss to Sampdoria, which saw them have a 2.49-1.34 xG advantage, and a 2-2 draw to Roma (1.93-0.90 xG advantage Inter again) followed that streak.

But only two losses for the entire season keep Inter in striking distance.So two disappointing results heading into this one. I think manager Antonio Conte could play this one close to the vest, as he is known to do in big games. My opinion is that Inter would be very happy with a draw from this one.

Juventus

Juventus enter this game fourth in the table, seven points behind AC Milan, but they have a game in hand and are in great form. Juve, obviously, needs this win more than Inter to make up more ground on the top of the table.

From an advanced metric perspective, Juve come in one spot ahead of Inter in NPxGD at +18.76.

These teams’ attacks are basically identical in expected production, but the defense has been superior for the defending champs. Juventus have conceded 0.91 NPxGA per game, which is second only trailing Napoli.

The longer Juventus plays together, the more it feels like this could be a special team if managed correctly. They have been playing like the best team in Italy for the past month, and it really isn’t very close.

Juventus come into this match in very strong form. Their only loss of the season came against Fiorentina, a game in which they picked up a red card. Juve blew the doors off Parma, Udinese, AC Milan and Sassuolo in their other recent four matches. They were up a man against Sassuolo, so I will leave that one out. If we exclude Fiorentina and Sassuolo, this side has generated 2.92 xG per game since the beginning of December. That’s dominant play, and the defending hasn’t dropped off either, conceding just 1.07 xGA/game.

I would expect more of the same in this game, to be honest. Cristiano Ronaldo has been superb obviously, but players like Weston McKennie, Federico Chiesa and Alvaro Morata when healthy add so much to this side. If they can stay healthy, watch out.

The only caveat to Juve right now is their health. They will be without Juan Cuadrado, Alex Sandro and Matthijs de Ligt for this game. Obviously, it’s not preferable to be missing three starting quality defenders in a match like this.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I will warn you that these big games between the top-four sides end in draws fairly frequently. So I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the result in Milan.

However, I do think Juventus are the more in-form side and are rolling offensively. Inter are shaky at the back, and Juve should be able to take advantage.

If anyone is winning this game, I do side with the boys from Turin. Having the defenders out is not great, but I just can’t trust this Inter side in a big spot.

I will probably do an Atalanta moneyline/Juve +0.5 parlay at close to even odds, but probably shouldn’t have that as the best bet. So, I will side with Juventus.

Pick: Juventus — Draw No Bet (+116)

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