Sevilla vs. Valencia Odds, Picks, Prediction: Value on Home Side in La Liga Match (Wednesday, Sept. 22)

Sevilla vs. Valencia Odds

There is no time for rest this week in La Liga with a full schedule of midweek action, including a match between top-six sides when Sevilla host Valencia on Wednesday.

All eyes will be on the lineup announced for Valencia, which could be making the trip without captain José Luis Gayà and leading scorer Carlos Soler.

Sevilla will be looking to continue its undefeated start to the campaign but even with the potential absentees, Valencia won’t make it easy.

Sevilla Looking to Continue Strong Home Form

Sevilla opened the 2021-22 season with consecutive shutout victories over Rayo Vallecano and Getafe before settling for draws with Elche and Real Sociedad.

Summer-signing Érik Lamela is loving his move to Spain, leading the team with three goals in four matches. With the addition of Lamela upfront with Youssef En-Nesyri (18 league goals in 2020-21), Sevilla should have a potent attack.

The great start for manager Julen Lopetegui’s side also lines up with Sevilla’s advanced stats, ranking in the top five in expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes (1.68), shots per game (14.50), xG against per match (0.7) and xG difference (+3.9), according to fbref.com.

Last season, Sevilla was also very difficult to beat at home, finishing the season with the second-most points at home with 43 and only dropping points in five of 19 matches at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium.

Valencia Hopes to Bounce Back After Loss

Valencia has enjoyed a great start to its season, with wins over Getafe, Alaves and Osasuna to go with a draw at Granada and defeat to Real Madrid over the weekend.

The result over the weekend might have finished differently, but manager José Bordalás was forced into two first-half changes because of injuries suffered by Soler and defender Thierry Correia.

There should be enough quality in the team without the key losses, with the likes of Gonçalo Guedes and Maxi Gomez both finding the net already this season.

Valencia also joins Sevilla with strong metrics through the first five matches, posting a +2.4 xG difference while registering 1.3 xG per match and allowing 0.82 xG against per 90 minutes.

The injuries should give more opportunities to 18-year-old American midfielder Yunus Musah, who has come off the bench in three matches this campaign.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Without the injury news, this was set up to be a great match between two teams on solid form early in the season, but you can’t ignore that news for the handicap in this game.

I’ll be taking the home side Sevilla on the moneyline at -165 on BetMGM for this one.

The trip was already going to be a difficult one for Valencia, but when you add in the key injuries and the quick turnaround for this midweek trip, all of the value is with Sevilla.

Another aspect you can’t ignore was how Valencia performed away from home last season, which was not good. With only two away wins in the league in 2020-21, Valencia finished with only 12 points from its 19 away matches, which was tied for last in La Liga.

The history in this series also favors the home team in this one. In the last 17 trips to Sevilla, Valencia has been defeated in 11 of those encounters and only won two.

Sevilla won both fixtures between the two clubs in the league last season and knocked Valencia out of the Copa del Rey in the Round of 16. I’m expecting them to make it a fourth consecutive win in the series.

Pick: Sevilla ML (-162)