European Soccer Projections: Projected Odds and Totals for Every Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 Match
Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: Leo Messi.
The return of club football is right around the corner with a full slate of action this weekend from the five major leagues in Europe, which means we have 49 matches to bet on.
I will be putting out these projections for these five leagues, plus Champions League, every Tuesday until the end of the season. If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
Champions League and Europa League kicks off next next week, so keep in mind that some teams competing in those competitions may have to begin managing their squads.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Note: These projections do not take into account injuries. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI.
Premier League Notes
- Everton vs. Liverpool: Everton are the early leader in the Premier League, as the Blues are the lone Premier League club to win their first four matches. Liverpool are coming off their worst defeat under manager Jurgen Klopp, a 7-2 drubbing at Aston Villa two weekends ago. Liverpool have dominated this rivalry over the past 10 years. You have to go back to Oct. 17, 2010, to find the last time Everton took down Liverpool.
- Leicester vs. Aston Villa: Here, we find an unexpected early top-4 clash after Aston Villa hung seven goals on the defending champs. The Villans are now in second place, which is a far cry from battling relegation at the end of last season. Leicester started the season in thrilling fashion by winning their first three matches, including a 5-2 win away to Manchester City. The Foxes came back down to earth in their last match, a 3-0 home defeat to West Ham. The outcome of this match will help in telling us which club is for real toward the top of the table.
- Manchester City vs. Arsenal: After losing to Leicester and drawing with Leeds, the Cityzens look vulnerable early in this Premier League season. Arsenal have been taking care of business, winning the three matches it was expected to while losing to Liverpool. Manchester City have won six straight league games against Arsenal and have outscored them, 17-2, in the process.
Premier League Injury News
- Arsenal: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (ST) has a sprained ankle and questionable to play versus Manchester City on Saturday.
- Burnley: Jack Cork (CM) and Ben Mee (CB) are both doubtful to play against West Brom.
- Chelsea:Ben Chilwell (LB) and Timo Werner (ST) are currently self isolating due to COVID-19 tracing and are questionable to play against Southampton.
- Everton: Richarlison (LW) and Seamus Coleman (RB) are both probable to play against Liverpool.
- Leicester: Wilfred Ndidi (CM) is out for 12 weeks with a groin tear and Dennis Praet (CM) is questionable with a knee injury. James Maddison (CAM) and Demarai Gray (LW) are both probable to face Aston Villa.
- Liverpool: Sadio Mane (LW), Thiago (CM), and Naby Keita (CM) are all questionable to face Everton due to positive COVID-19 tests. Alisson Becker (GK) has been ruled out.
- Manchester City: Gabriel Jesus (ST) and Raheem Sterling (LW) are questionable to face Arsenal. Kevin De Bruyne (CM) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (LB) are both doubtful for Saturday.
- Manchester United: Anthony Martial (ST) is suspended vs. Newcastle after picking up a red card against Tottenham in his last match.
- Newcastle: Allan Saint-Maximin (LW) is probable to face Manchester United.
- Sheffield United:Lys Mousset (ST) is out for the next few weeks after having a procedure to repair a ligament in his toe.
- Tottenham:Gareth Bale (RW) and Giovani Lo Celso (CM) are both questionable to face West Ham this weekend.
- Augsburg vs. RB Leipzig: The unexpected pair atop the Bundesliga meets on Saturday at 9:30 a.m. ET. Augsburg started their season with wins over Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund before a draw against Wolfsburg. RB Leipzig won both meetings last year.
- Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund: Hoffenheim won both meetings against Dortmund last season, including a 4-0 thrashing on the final day. Hoffenheim also already have a 4-1 victory over Bayern Munich this season.
- Arminia Bielefeld vs. Bayern Munich: This one could get ugly. Arminia Bielefeld only had a +6.18 xGD in the second division last season and has only generated a total of 1.32 xGF in their first three matches in the German top flight.
Bundesliga Injury News:
- Bayern Munich: Leroy Sane (LW) is questionable to face Arminia Bielefeld on Saturday.
- Leverkusen: Patrik Schick (ST) is questionable to face Mainz with a muscle injury.
- Dortmund: Thorgan Hazard (LW) is questionable to face Hoffenheim with a hamstring injury.
- Gladbach: Denis Zakaria (CDM) is questionable to face Wolfsburg with a knee injury.
- Frankfurt: Filip Kostic (LM) is out with a knee injury against Koln.
- Freibrug: Janik Haberer (CM) is questionable to face Werder Bremen with an ankle injury.
- Hertha Berlin: Jordan Torunaigha (CB) is out against Vfb Stuttgart with an ankle injury.
- RB Leipzig: Marcel Sabitzer (CAM) and Ibrahima Konate (CB) are both questionable to face Augsburg.
- Schalke 04: Amine Harit (CAM) and Suat Serder (CM) are both questionable to face Union Berlin.
- Werder Bremen:Davie Selke (ST) is out and Milot Rishica (LW) is questionable against Freiburg.
- Wolfsburg:Paulo Otavio (LB) is out versus Gladbach.
Serie A Notes:
- Napoli vs. Atalanta: Both teams will enter this matchup with unblemished starts to their league seasons. Atalanta had the best xGD in Serie A last season, while Napoli was fifth best.
- Inter Milan vs. AC Milan: Inter have won the last four Milan Derbies over their inner city rival by a combined score of 10-4.
Serie A Injury News
- AC Milan: Alessio Romagnoli (CB) is out with a shin injury, and Ante Rebic(ST) is questionable to face Inter.
- Genoa: Team has been hit by a COVID-19 outbreak and has 14 players questionable to face Verona.
- Inter:Ashley Young (LM), Alessandro Bastoni (CB), and Milan Skriniar (CB) are all questionable to face AC Milan due to COVID-19 related issues.
- Juventus:Matthijs de Ligt (CB), Cristiano Ronaldo, (CF), Adrian Rabiot (CM) and Alex Sandro (LB) are all out versus Crotone.
- Lazio:Ciro Immobile (ST) is out due to suspension and Luiz Felipe (CB) is questionable to face Sampdoria.
- Napoli:Lorenzo Insigne (LW) and Pitor Zielinski (CM) are both questionable to face Atalanta.
- Udinese: Juan Musso (GK) is out until late December with a knee injury.
La Liga Notes:
- Real Madrid vs Cadiz: Los Blancos will try to maintain their one-point lead atop La Liga against newly promoted Cadiz. One note I’d like to point out: Cadiz had a negative expected goal differential in the second division last year. This one could be a rout.
- Getafe vs Barcelona: Barcelona need this one to keep pace with Real Madrid. Barca have only generated 2.3 xGD in their first three matches, so Messi and Co. really need to get things going coming out of the international break.
- Real Betis vsReal Sociedad: Despite being in second place, Real Betis have a -0.8 xGD through their first five matches. Real Sociedad have the second best xGD in La Liga at +4.8.
La Liga Injury News:
- Athletic Bilbao: Yuri Berchiche (LB) is questionable to face Levante due to COVID-19 related issues.
- Atletico Madrid: Sime Vrsaljko (RB) is out versus Celta Vigo with a knee injury.
- Barcelona: Jordi Alba (LB) and Marc-Andre ter Stegen (GK) are both out vs. Getafe.
- Celta Vigo: Hugo Mallo (RB) and Ruben Blanco (GK) are both out vs. Atletico Madrid.
- Eibar: Pape Diop (CM) is out due to a suspension against Osasuna.
- Real Madrid: Eden Hazard (LW) and Daniel Caravajal (RB) are out with a muscle injury. Marco Asensio (LW) and Thibaut Courtois (GK) are both questionable to face Cadiz.
- Valencia: Gabriel Paulista (CB) and Eliaquim Mangala (CB) are both questionable to face Villarreal.
Ligue 1 Notes:
- Lille vs. Lens: Newly promoted Lens are atop the Ligue 1 standings based on expected points through the first six matches. Lille were second to only PSG last season in xGD at home and have lost only twice in their last 22 matches at home in Ligue 1.
- Nimes vs. PSG: After losing their opening two matches, PSG have righted the ship, winning their last four matches in Ligue 1. Nimes were bottom five in Ligue 1 last year in xG.
- Monaco vs. Montpellier: Monaco seemingly only know how to play in high-scoring matches. Monaco averages a total of 3.20 xG per match, while Montpellier averaged 2.50 total xG during the 2019-20 campaign.
Ligue 1 Injury News
- Lille: Jose Fonte (CB) is questionable due to COVID-19 related issues.
- Lyon: Bruno Guilmaraes (CM) is out due to a suspension and Anthony Lopes (GK) is questionable due to COVID related issues.
- Marseille:Dimitri Payet (CAM) is out due to a suspension.
- Metz:Habib Maiga (CM) is out due to a suspension.
- Monaco:Aleksandr Golovin (CAM), Axel Disasi (CB), and Fode Ballo (LB) are all out against Montpellier.
- Montpellier: 12 players have tested positive for COVID and will be out against Monaco
- Nantes: Andrei Girotto (CB) is out due to a suspension.
- Nice: Youcef Atal (RB) is out versus Saint Etienne due to a hamstring injury.
- Nimes: Sidy Sarr (CM) is out against PSG due to a groin injury.
- PSG: Marquinhos (CB), Angel Di Maria (RM), Juan Bernat (RB) are all out against Nimes.
- Rennes: Steven Nzonzi (CM), Damien Da Silva (CB), Martin Terrier (LW) are all out against Dijon.
- Saint Etienne: Mathieu Debuchy (RB) is out against Nice with a muscle injury.
- Strasbourg: Alexander Djuku (CDM) is out against Monaco due to a suspension.
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