Spain Netherlands, Japan Sweden Women’s World Cup Picks
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Alba Redondo.
With only eight nations remaining, the Women’s World Cup rolls into the quarterfinals this week with great matchups in all four games.
The round kicks off on Thursday with Spain and the Netherlands, where I have my first prop bet that I believe shows great value.
Meanwhile, my next play comes in the match between Japan and Sweden, which I see following the recent trend of not having many goals.
There were penalties and blowouts in the round of 16, and the drama should only continue to rise as we get deeper into this tournament. So, let’s jump straight into our favorite betting props for the quarterfinals.
World Cup Picks – Spain vs Netherlands & Japan vs Sweden
Spain vs Netherlands – Spain over 14.5 shots (-120 via bet365)
Two of the world’s elite nations meet to open this round when Spain take on the Dutch. They have both performed very well at the World Cup as well.
For the Spanish, they have averaged 3.33 xG per 90 minutes and owned a +11.6 xGDiff in the tournament, according to fbref.com. However, they did have an embarrassing 4-0 loss to Japan in the group stage.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands topped their group that included the United States before defeating South Africa 2-0 in the round of 16.
I still believe this is a game that will be controlled by Spain, which leads to my favorite prop in the fixture. I like Spain to fly over their team total for shots of 14.5 at -120 odds via bet365.
If you look at all of their matches this year, La Roja have eclipsed this mark in all but one of them, and they topped this in three of four games at the Euros last summer.
They now come up against a Netherlands team that surrendered 18 shots to the USWNT and 32 to France last year. I just don’t trust the Oranje against the upper echelon of sides like Spain, who should have the attacking flair to expose them.
Japan vs Sweden – Both Teams to Score – No (-122 via FanDuel)
Has there been a more dominant team at this World Cup than Japan? They have scored the most goals in the competition with 14 and only trail the Spanish team that they beat in the group stage in xGDiff at +9.1.
However, I don’t see this continuing against a tough Sweden side, who are particularly good defensively.
If you combine the matches in this tournament with their games at the Euros last summer, the Swedes have only allowed an average of 0.86 xG per 90 minutes.
This is one of the main reasons why the no on BTTS has cashed in six of those nine games in those competitions.
Meanwhile, this has also been a profitable bet in Japan games, as it has hit in 8-of-10 fixtures this year and 3-of-4 at this World Cup.
After seeing this bet get to the window in 6-of-8 round of 16 games, I think this one also has a great chance of being low-scoring.