Manchester United vs. AC Milan Thursday Europa League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (March 11)

Manchester United vs. AC Milan Thursday Europa League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (March 11) article feature image
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Antonietta Baldassarre/Insidefoto/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

  • Two giants of European soccer meet Thursday in Europa League action at Old Trafford.
  • Manchester United and AC Milan are both coming off wins over the weekend, as they chase their respective domestic league titles.
  • Matt Trebby lays out what type of game he's expecting and where the betting value is below.

Manchester United vs. AC Milan Odds

Manchester United Odds -162
AC Milan Odds +460
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-124 / +100) 
Day | Time Thursday 12:55 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Two giants of European football who seem destined to finish as the bridesmaid to their city rivals domestically will face off in search of Europa League glory on Thursday.

AC Milan have more of a shot than Manchester United at domestic glory, but it looks like both teams are set to put a strong effort toward European competition. The two clubs have fantastic histories of success across the continent, and lifting a trophy in this competition — which is much stronger than recent years at this point — would be a memorable accomplishment.

Assuming both teams field their best possible lineups, or something close to them, let’s break down where the betting value lies.

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Manchester United

The Red Devils enter this matchup coming off their best result of the season, a 2-0 victory against league-leading Manchester City that was absolutely deserved. United was ahead in the second minute and looked comfortable the entire match.

They even won the expected goals (xG) battle, 2.11-1.28, according to Understat. It was only the fourth time this season that City has not had more xG than their opponent in the Premier League.

The win is likely too little, too late for United in the Premier League title chase. They sit 11 points behind City with 10 games to play and are unlikely to catch Pep Guardiola’s side given its stellar form for most of the season.

European glory is still possible for the Red Devils, though, and they’re familiar with success in the Europa League. Back in May 2017, they took down a stacked Ajax team, 2-0, to claim the title.

Given how United lined up in the previous round against Spanish xG darlings Real Sociedad, they have great intentions of accomplishing something similar. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side dispatched of the Basque club with a 4-0 win in the first leg and scoreless draw in the second at Old Trafford.

In all competitions, United have scored multiple goals three times in their last seven games, during which time they posted 0.42 xG against West Brom, 0.36 against Chelsea and 0.58 against Crystal Palace, all of which ended in draws.

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AC Milan

Milan relied on their two away goals to go through against Red Star Belgrade in the Round of 32, drawing 2-2 in Serbia and 1-1 at the San Siro.

After an eight-match run in all competitions that saw the Rossoneri win just twice in all competitions, Milan have won two of their last three in Serie A against Roma and Hellas Verona.

The performance against Roma was a surprise in that the Giallorossi have been creating chances left and right in Serie A, and it was assumed Milan would not be able to keep up. Impressively, though, they won that battle, 3.25-1.20, en route to a key win.

A draw against Udinese didn’t help their Serie A title chase, though, as Milan now trail city rivals Inter by six points with 12 games to play.

In defense of Milan’s two draws against Red Star, those fixtures were on either side of a matchup in Serie A with Inter that went totally haywire. The Milan Derby was clearly the focus, though, as Zlatan Ibrahimovic didn’t start either game and the team was heavily rotated between the three fixtures.

Ibrahimovic missed Milan’s last two Serie A fixtures after being substituted with an injury against Roma back on Feb. 28. Milan manager Stefano Pioli told reporters he is hopeful to have Ibrahimovic for the matchup against United, and the Swedish superstar, who has 14 goals in 14 Serie A appearances this season, will no doubt be itching to face his former club.

Betting Analysis & Picks

United will be confident in getting a result and scoring at the San Siro in the second leg, so the priority in this game will be keeping a clean sheet so Milan doesn’t have an away-goals advantage.

The Red Devils are unbeaten in 15 away matches in the Premier League this season and dominated Sociedad in Spain in the last round, and who knows how much of a home-field advantage anyone has nowadays in these big games without fans.

Operating under that premise, under 2.5 goals at +100 is good value. Milan don’t have the quality in midfield to run this game and create chances left and right, so I expect United to control the game with eyes on taking it to the Rossoneri in the second leg.

Also, the +460 Milan moneyline is simply too high not to put something on. Our BJ Cunningham projects Milan’s moneyline for this as +282, which means anything over +300 is worth putting something down on. Over +400? Even more so.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+100)

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