Tottenham vs Brighton Odds, Pick: Spurs to Pick Up Important Win (April 8)
Alex Livesey/Getty. Pictured: Clement Lenglet.
Tottenham vs Brighton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +105)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-160 / +120)|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brighton & Hove Albion can edge even closer to European football if they can pull off a statement win at Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday.
They are unbeaten across their last seven in all competitions and in their last five in the league following a 2-0 win at relegation strugglers Bournemouth on Tuesday. That result moved Brighton into sixth and within four points of fifth-place Spurs, who have played two more matches.
A day earlier, Spurs settled for a 1-1 draw at Everton despite going up a man and then a goal in the second half. The draw in the first match since the departure of manager Antonio Conte extended Tottenham’s run of recent poor form, in which they’ve won only one of their last six in all competitions.
Spurs won the previous league meeting between these sides 1-0 in a narrowly contested game on the South Coast exactly six months ago.
Tottenham Lacking Expected Energy
There was no evidence of a “new coach bump” some teams experience for Spurs on Monday at Goodison Park.
Even after Tottenham went up a man following Abdoulaye Doucoure’s foolish outburst directed at Harry Kane, they never really looked in control of the game.
Kane put the visitors ahead through a fairly awarded but not particularly deserved penalty. From there, it appeared Spurs knew not whether they wished to try and put the game out of reach or concentrate on defending their lead.
They did neither, and Spurs let Everton back into the match when substitute Lucas Moura received a straight red card for his studs-up challenge on Michael Keane. Then, Keane’s late equalizer ensured a share of the points.
Despite the dour mood around the North London club, there remains a lot to play for. This will be the first of three games in the next four against their fellow challengers for European places. Newcastle United and Manchester United loom later this month – the two sides that currently lead Tottenham by three points for the third and fourth UEFA Champions League places.
Moura will serve the first of a three-game suspension on Saturday. Fellow Brazilian Richarlison also remains out with a leg injury sustained in mid-March, though he could return next week.
Brighton Seeking Statement Outing
The Seagulls may have eventually completed a comfortable victory against their local southern rivals on Tuesday, but it was hardly straightforward.
Teen phenom Evan Ferguson scored a stylish opener with a clever back-heel to stake Brighton to a first-half lead. But Bournemouth had plenty to offer going forward before and after going behind.
It was only in the last 15 minutes that the hosts appeared to lose steam and Brighton began exploiting that space. They finally doubled their advantage in the 90th minute through another teen, Julio Cesar Enciso, whose first Premier League goal came on a chance harder to miss than to make.
If there’s reason to doubt the Seagulls can climb even higher in the Premier League table, it may be the volume of matches they’ll play in their last two months.
In addition to 11 league matches, Brighton are into the semifinals of the FA Cup against Manchester United on April 23. If they reach the final, they’ll have to play 13 matches between now and June 3.
Influential South American midfielders Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister both left early with knocks against Bournemouth, but both are expected to be available against Spurs.
Tottenham vs Brighton Pick:
This line feels like it’s trying to trick you into backing a Spurs side with lots of baggage. And yet, I’m inclined to think you should.
Yes, confidence in Spurs is pretty low right now given the whole Conte episode. Tottenham may hold fifth place in the table, but they’ve played more like a mid-table team since mid-October.
And the analytics show Brighton have been the better team this season in terms of xG produced and allowed. In particular, Brighton are averaging a +0.45 xG difference in away games, only slightly lower than Spurs’ +0.64 xG average difference per 90 at home.
But the lurking variable in Brighton’s away numbers is the strength of that away schedule. The Seagulls only have one away win over a team in the top half of the table. That came against Manchester United on opening weekend, back when Cristiano Ronaldo was still a Red Devils distraction and before manager Erik ten Hag’s group found its footing.
Overall, Brighton have a 1-3-1 (W-L-D) record against top-half sides, and four of their last six away games are against that top 10. Another is against 11th-place Chelsea.
Long story short, Brighton’s away numbers are skewed. The +160 odds and 38.5% probability are too generous for the home side, even if their house is a bit of a mess right now.
Pick: Tottenham ML (+165)
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