Bayern Munich vs. Lazio Odds, Picks & Predictions For Wednesday’s Champions League Match

Bayern Munich vs. Lazio Odds, Picks & Predictions For Wednesday’s Champions League Match article feature image
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Stefan Matzke – sampics/Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: Bayern Munich star Robert Lewandowski, left, heads the ball in a recent match.

  • Bayern Munich looks to close out its Champions League tie with Lazio during Wednesday's match in European competition.
  • This game is somewhat of a formality, with the Bavarians holding a 4-1 aggregate lead after its rout over the Serie A side in the first leg.
  • Kieran Darcy breaks down the contest and explains where he's found value backing the German powerhouse below.

Bayern Munich vs. Lazio Odds

Bayern Munich Odds -315
Lazio Odds +750
Draw +460
Over/Under 3.5 (-120 / -104) 
Day | Time Wednesday 4 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Bayern Munich takes on Lazio in another Champions League Round of 16 tie on Wednesday that was essentially decided three weeks ago.

The Italian visitors from Serie A are a whopping 50-1 underdogs to advance to the quarterfinal round after suffering a 4-1 home loss in the first leg.

However, we can still find a way to make this second leg interesting, though. Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction for this contest.

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Bayern Munich

The Bavarians have won all three of their matches since beating Lazio, plus they’ve been dominant in doing so. They’ve beaten Koln (5-1); Borussia Dortmund (4-2); and, Werder Bremen by a 3-1 score line this past Saturday.

Bayern Munich now has a four-point lead in the Bundesliga standings after RB Leipzig settled for a draw with Eintracht Frankfurt on Sunday in league play.

Robert Lewandowski has scored six of Bayern Munich’s 12 goals in its past three matches. He now has 32 goals in 24 Bundesliga appearances, nine more than any other player in the top five leagues across Europe.

Lewandowski also scored one of the Bavarians’ four goals against Lazio, which came in a match they led 3-0 at the intermission and 4-0 early in the second half before Lazio finally got on the board. And Bayern Munich was missing some key players in that game, including Thomas Müller and Serge Gnabry.

Müller is the team’s second-leading scorer and leading creator, with 10 goals and 13 assists in the Bundesliga. And Gnabry is their third-leading scorer with eight goals on the campaign.

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Lazio

Following its defeat against Bayern Munich, the Italian outfit went on to lose its next two matches, suffering league setbacks against Bologna (2-0) and Juventus by a 3-1 score. Losing to the latter isn’t so bad, but Bologna sits in 12th place in the league table.

Lazio is only in seventh place, though. The White and Sky Blues are 19 points behind league leader Inter Milan and six points behind fourth-place Atalanta in the race for the final UCL spot.

And the underlying numbers tell a similar story. In fact, in terms of expected-goal differential (xGDiff), Lazio is eighth in the standings with a +4.2 xGDiff, according to FBRef.com.

Ciro Immobile is tied for fourth in the Italian top flight with 14 goals, but he hasn’t scored in his past six matches.

Betting Analysis & Pick

As mentioned above, Bayern Munich has been pummeling teams as of late. The Bavarians have scored 22 goals in seven UCL matches during the competition, which is better than three goals per game. And they’ve scored 74 goals in 25 Bundesliga games, which translates to almost three goals per outing. That’s nine more than any other team in the top five leagues.

Lazio was more competitive in the first leg than the final score indicates, actually outshooting Bayern Munich by a slim, 14-13 margin. However, the Bavarians held a 2.6-1.6 xG edge in the meeting.

I can see Lazio scoring in this leg, but I have a hard time seeing it keeping things close, especially with the likes of Müller and Gnabry back. I think Bayern Munich wins this game and does it in comfortable fashion.

Pick: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-117)

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