Wednesday Champions League Odds & Picks (Aug.19): Bayern Munich Has Too Much Firepower for Lyon

Bayern vs. Lyon Odds

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Bayern Munich meet up with Lyon on Wednesday, after the French side pulled off a surprise upset over Manchester City over the weekend as 11-1 underdogs.

Bayern Munich beat Barcelona 8-2 in their quarterfinal match, which is the most impressive and resounding victory of the tournament by a long shot.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich dominated Barcelona in the quarterfinals, 8-2. Yes, Barcelona have their own issues, but Bayern were close to even money prior to kickoff.

What really impressed me was their press and their dominance in the midfield. Barcelona were doomed when they continuously tried to play out the back, and clearly were not capable of doing so. Bayern still had 5.1 expected goals to Barcelona’s 0.9.

Bayern are the odds-on favorite to win the Champions League, and I like them an awful lot here. Over the course of their season, Bayern averaged 2.74 xG/game. They also like to jump out to early leads, creating 1.28 xG per first half played in the Bundesliga.

Because of this, I would expect Bayern to jump out to an early lead, so looking at -1 first half does make sense to me at plus money. Their only weakness is at the back, so they are susceptible to counter attacks.

Lyon

Lyon are quite the story. But analytical bettors might want to look away for this part.

I have faded them twice, and twice they have gotten the better of me.

Lyon had the second-best xG differential in Ligue 1. They are stout defensively and generated 1.3 xG/game.

However, Lyon created 0.4 (backed out PK) expected goals over two legs against Juventus, and only 1.0 xG against Man City in the quarterfinals.

They basically had two high probability chances and scored three goals. Man City had four high quality chances and scored only once. Some really strange tactics from Pep Guardiola gave Lyon an advantage and they took advantage it. I think they have been a bit fortunate against both Juventus and Man City.

You can point to their season long data, but the quality of their opposition is much higher here.

Bayern are an unstoppable force at this point, and don’t think Lyon will stop them. Lyon play a defensive style and are awesome on the counterattack, and I do expect Lyon to be able to score one on Bayern, which should give us a game with some goals.

But I like Bayern to lead at the half as well as Bayern -2 for the full game. I’ll also go with -1.5/-2 on the Asian handicap if you are okay with -140 juice. I also like the over 3.5 (-120). Due to the single-game elimination, these teams have been far more aggressive, leading to at least three goals in all nine games thus far.

The Bets:

• Bayern 1H -1 (+123)
• Bayern -2 full game (-108) or -1.5/2 (-139) on the Asian handicap
• Over 3.5 (-120)