Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks: Back Underdog Wolves Against Manchester United (August 29)

Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks: Back Underdog Wolves Against Manchester United (August 29) article feature image
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Adama Traore (left) and Paul Pogba.

  • Following a pair of losses to start their season, Wolves look to get a result in Sunday’s Premier League match against Manchester United.
  • The Red Devils slipped up last week in a draw with Southampton and will be without Cristiano Ronaldo, who rejoined the club Friday.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the game below and delivers his pick for this showdown.

Wolves vs. Manchester United Odds

Wolves Odds +400
Manchester United Odds -130
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -110)
Day | Time 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

Wolverhampton Wanderers look for their first points of the season when they host Manchester United at the Molineux Stadium on Sunday.

Wolves have been really unlucky through their first two matches against Leicester and Tottenham, with no points to show for a pair of solid performances. The schedule hasn’t done them any favors either, having to face three top-seven teams from last season to start the new campaign.

However, under Bruno Lage, Wolves have looked improved from last season, so they shouldn’t get run over by Manchester United.

Obviously, the big news coming out of Manchester on Friday was the return of Cristiano Ronaldo to Old Trafford. While Ronaldo won’t feature on Sunday for United, it is a huge boost for them and in search for a reliable striker.

The Red Devils were unlucky to draw 1-1 on the road at Southampton last weekend, and dropping points again on the road would be another blow in their challenge for the Premier League title.

Wolves Due to Find Goalscoring Form

Wolves may have lost their first two matches of the season, but they’re really undeserving to have no points. Looking at non-penalty expected goals (NPxGD) after facing two top-seven clubs in Leicester and Tottenham, they out-created the pair by a combined 2.84-1.63 margin in expected goals (xG).

The real bright spot for Wolves has been the resurgence of Adama Traore, who has been tormenting opposing defenses with his speed and power off the left wing.

Adama Traore has completed more take-ons than any other Premier League player since the start of last season (173).

He also ranks fourth for chances created from open play in that time frame (60). 💪 pic.twitter.com/l2WPCdRxC6

— Squawka Football (@Squawka) August 23, 2021

 

It’s seriously crazy that the ball hasn’t found the back of the net yet for Wolves, because they have the second most shot-creating actions (64) in the Premier League, while only allowing (29), per fbref.com. That said, they should be able to give Manchester United’s defense some problems.

Manchester United: [Editorial Language]

The Red Devils’ strength last season was their defense. In fact, they were one of the best in the league over the second half of last season, allowing 0.98 xG per match since the start of the year.

Now, the back line is only going to improve with the addition of Raphaël Varane, who is one of the best center backs in the world.

United had a lot of bad luck at Southampton last weekend, creating 2.16 xG but only putting one in the back of the net. However, Manchester United’s offense was highly overrated last season, as they scored 73 goals, but only created 63.17 xG. Through two games this season, they’ve scored six goals but only created 3.90 xG.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Wolves are way overdue for some positive regression and should be able to give Manchester United’s defense problems, just like they did to both Tottenham and Leicester.

I have Wolves’ projected odds at -109 for their spread line of +0.5, so I think there’s value on their current +115 at DraftKings and would play it down to +106 odds.

Pick: Wolves +0.5 (+115, play to +106)

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