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Wolves vs Man City Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview

Wolves vs Man City Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview article feature image

Chris Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Erling Haaland.

Wolves vs Man City Odds

Saturday, Sep. 30
10 a.m. ET
Wolves Odds+700
Man City Odds-300
Over / Under
 -175 / +137
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Man City look to stretch their perfect start to the league campaign to seven matches on Saturday when they visit a Wolves side just looking to avoid going winless in all competitions in the month of September.

City enter the weekend having taken every point possible so far and holding a two-point lead over Liverpool in the early stages of their bid to become England's first four-time repeat league champions. And they might also bring in a bit of an extra edge after suffering their first loss of the campaign in all competitions — a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle in the Leagues Cup on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Wolves are simply conceding too many goals under new manager Gary O'Neil, letting in 10 in four games this month. Most recently, they became the first side to give up points against newly promoted Luton Town last weekend and followed that with a League Cup loss at second-tier Ipswich Town.

City have won their last six against Wolves, with all of those coming in the league. Let's get into this Wolves vs City fixture.


Wolves have had a revolving door for managers over the last several years, though the August departure of Julen Lopategui — who helped the Midlands side survive another relegation fight — was unlike the rest.

Lopategui got strong reviews for his work over the second half of last season. But he had expressed frustration in what he saw as a lack of investment in the squad, which ultimately led to his departure just days before the new campaign began. And that frustration has been supported by what Wolves did and didn't do in the remainder of the summer transfer window.

Of their summer acquisitions, only French midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde has made multiple league starts since his arrival. Meanwhile, Wolves ultimately were convinced to part with Portuguese midfielder Matheus Nunes, allowing him to leave for City for a reported fee of around $67 million.

And so far, the xG totals suggest there's little in the way of luck that owes to how often O'Neil's 16th-place squad has conceded. Their -4.8 xG difference is the fourth-worst in the Premier League, while their 12.5 xG allowed is third-worst.

Bellegarde will have to miss this one after receiving a red card in the Luton draw.

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Man City

Despite losing playmaker Kevin DeBruyne to a long-term injury and seeing the departure of longtime captain Ilkay Gundogan, City have continued to post numbers that show them as the class of the Premier League again, leading the table in points, goal differential, expected goals created and expected goals allowed.

If you were going to levy a criticism against manager Pep Guardiola's side — framed in the context of the absurdly high standards they've set for themselves — it might be that City have failed to show some ruthlessness in putting games away.

Consider their 2-0 home win against Nottingham Forest last weekend, in which they were unable to add to a first-half lead in part due to Rodri's 46th-minute red card. Or their 2-1 win at Sheffield United where Kyle Walker's error helped the Blades equalize before he contributed to a late winner on the other end. Or their 1-0 home win over an admittedly talented Newcastle group in which they looked content to manage their lead rather than build it after Julian Alvarez's 31st-minute goal.

In contrast to last season, City's more explosive attacking play has come on their travels so far. Perhaps that owes to a shift to being a slightly more counter-based side in the absence of De Bruyne and Gundogan. Or perhaps it's just the schedule, which has included two of the newly promoted teams in City's first three away league fixtures.

Rodri's suspension will continue against Wolves, which could pave the way for Nunes to make his second start for City and first against his former club. Erling Haaland will look to build on his Premier League-leading total of eight goals.

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Wolves vs Man City

Pick & Prediction

As is often the case with City, any value that exists on the moneyline is probably with them, albeit at an extremely unappealing price of -300 odds and an implied 75% probability. Think of it this way: Does this City team beat this Wolves team at the Molineaux three times if they played four games? Yeah, probably. City won nine out of 10 away to the bottom half of last year's table.

But Rodri's absence is significant in terms of how City might get to the victory. He leads his side in shot-creating actions both in overall terms and per 90 minutes among players who aren't injured and have played more than a handful of minutes.

It's also the kind of occasion that could rouse Wolves to a better-than-average defensive performance, though there's obviously not a guarantee of that.

Regardless, I think chance creation for City could be more difficult than it often is. So, I feel most comfortable conservatively parlaying the moneyline with a total of four goals or fewer at -140 odds and an implied 58.3% probability.

That wager cashed in six of those 10 away games for City last season, and all of their league away days so far this year. I wouldn't go much north of that price, though.

Pick: Same-Game Parlay, City and Under 4.5 (-140 via BetMGM)

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