Witters Sport-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Croatia’s Luka Modric
- France are betting favorites to beat Croatia in the 2018 World Cup Final.
- Public bettors love the over, but sharper money is looking elsewhere.
- The draw has moved down from +233 to +226 since open, despite getting just 11% of bets.
On Sunday morning, France will take on Croatia for the right to lift the 2018 World Cup trophy. It would be the second victory for France — who won in 1998 — and the first for Croatia.
France are sizable favorites to win at -218 odds, while Croatia are +188. Entering the tournament, France were +700 and Croatia +3500.
Here’s a look at the offshore betting market and how the public has bet each team throughout the tournament.
(Keep in mind that all moneylines, spreads and totals are based on 90 minutes of regulation. All data as of 10:15 a.m. ET.)
France -106, Croatia +405, Draw +226
France are the odds-on favorites (-106) to win in regulation and are appropriately getting 54% of moneyline bets. That public support nearly aligns with their implied win probability of 51.5%.
Croatia’s status as big underdogs has attracted 35% of tickets around the market. However, their odds have drifted from +387 to +405 since opening at Pinnacle, the sharpest offshore sportsbook for soccer bettors.
Just 11% of bettors believe that the match will end in a draw, which would be the fourth straight extra-time match for Croatia. Although the public isn’t betting it, the sharps are, as the draw has moved from +233 to +226 since opening.
Public bettors have clearly made up their mind in this match with more than 80% of tickets coming in on the over. Despite the heavy support, we’ve seen only a small adjustment on the juice (+109 to +106).
Even with an already low total of 2 goals, oddsmakers know that sharper money will be placed on the under. As games gain importance, teams play more tightly and more defensively. France have been a perfect example of that, aside from their anomaly against Argentina.
Public Support Throughout World Cup
France have received the majority of betting tickets in six of seven matches and cashed wins in all but one. They’ve also trailed in only one match all tournament (vs. Argentina).
Against Croatia, they’re getting more than half of moneyline bets to win in regulation. They have yet to play in extra time or a penalty shootout.
Croatia have drawn three straight matches in regulation, which sportsbooks have appreciated. Just 11% of bettors believe the final against France will be their fourth straight.
At +405 to win in regulation, this is easily the biggest underdog that Croatia have been all tournament. They won as +285 dogs over Argentina in the group stage and drew against England as +266 dogs in the semifinal.