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The Dallas Wings (27-17) and Golden State Valkyries (32-12) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EDT at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on USA.
The Valkyries are favored by -7.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 154.5 (-110o / -110u). The Valkyries are a -290 favorite to win outright, while the Wings are +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wings vs. Valkyries predictions and WNBA picks. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Wings vs. Valkyries Odds, Pick
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
- Wings vs. Valkyries Spread: Valkyries -7.5 (-105 ), Wings +7.5 (-115)
- Wings vs. Valkyries Over/Under: 154.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Wings vs. Valkyries Moneyline: Wings +235, Valkyries -290
- Wings vs. Valkyries Best Bet: Under 154.5
Wings vs. Valkyries Preview
Golden State opens the first round of the playoffs at home against Dallas, marking its return to the postseason under first-year head coach Jose Fernandez.
This is a rematch of a regular season the Valkyries dominated. Golden State swept the season series 3-0, and by the third meeting had clamped down on Dallas to just 75.3 points and 14.0 assists per game across the set, both well below the Wings' season averages of 89.4 points and 22.3 assists.
Golden State enters as a 7.5-point favorite, backed by the league's stingiest defense, which allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the WNBA this season.
The total opened at 155.5 and has already moved down to 154.5, with the market leaning toward the under before tip-off.
Golden State's frontcourt depth is thinner than usual with Iliana Rupert out for the season, but even a shorthanded Valkyries defense has continued to play controlled, low-scoring basketball down the stretch. Their most recent game against the Sparks finished with just 151 combined points, already below tonight's number.
Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction
Everything about this matchup points toward a defensive, controlled game rather than a shootout. Golden State's identity all season has been built around limiting possessions and forcing tough shots, and that identity only sharpens in the playoffs, when defensive intensity typically ratchets up across the league.
Dallas has already shown it struggles to generate offense against this specific Golden State defense. The regular-season sweep saw the Wings' scoring and ball movement both fall off a cliff by the third meeting, a troubling sign heading into a series where Golden State now has a full scouting report and a week of playoff-level preparation.
The line movement itself is worth paying attention to as well. A total that opens at 155.5 and gets bet down to 154.5 suggests the market is already leaning the same direction as the matchup profile suggests.
With Golden State's defense at a peak entering the postseason, Dallas's offense having struggled specifically against this opponent, and a recent Golden State game landing well under tonight's number on its own, the under is the side supported by both the matchup and the market.
Best Bet: Under 154.5 (-110, FanDuel)
