The Seattle Storm (8-34) and Las Vegas Aces (28-13) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on USA.
The Aces are favored by -15.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 176.5 (-105o / -115u). The Aces are a -1350 favorite to win outright, while the Storm are +800 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Storm vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Storm vs. Aces Odds, Pick
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 176.5 -105o / -115u | +800 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 176.5 -105o / -115u | -1350 |
- Storm vs. Aces Spread: Aces -15.5 (-110), Storm +15.5 (-110)
- Storm vs. Aces Over/Under: 176.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Storm vs. Aces Moneyline: Storm +800, Aces -1350
- Storm vs. Aces Best Bet: Storm +15.5
Storm vs. Aces Preview
The "Big Dog, No Extremes" system in WNBA Spread play is based on the idea that large underdogs can offer value when they are not entering the matchup in the middle of an extreme against the spread run.
By focusing on regular season games where the spread sits in double digits yet the team’s recent ATS streak remains moderate rather than overheated in either direction, the model avoids chasing momentum or fading sharp regression signals. Big dogs in the WNBA often face inflated numbers due to surface level power ratings, but when they are not riding a long winning or losing streak against the number, market expectations tend to settle into a neutral zone.
In these spots bookmakers may price the favorite aggressively based on talent gap alone, overlooking situational variance and late game dynamics that compress margins. Backing sizable underdogs without extreme recent trends seeks to capture steady long term inefficiencies rather than short term narrative swings, capitalizing on the natural tendency of double digit spreads to drift toward competitiveness over forty minutes.
Storm vs. Aces Prediction
Just three days ago, these two teams met in Seattle, where the Aces handed the Storm a 114-77 loss behind a career night from Jackie Young. That 37-point blowout naturally creates a massive recency bias in the market, inflating Las Vegas as a 15.5-point favorite on Sunday night.
However, when looking past that single head-to-head outlier, the Storm played a competitive road game against the Valkyries on Saturday (losing 70-57) and have stayed within reasonable ATS bounds prior to the Aces blowout.
Las Vegas is battling for top postseason seeding behind A'ja Wilson and Young, while Seattle is led by young talent like Flau'jae Johnson. But in back-to-back situations and late-season spots, heavy favorites often pull key starters once a double-digit lead is built. Over 40 minutes, a 15.5-point line leaves plenty of margin for late-game variance and backdoor covers.
Best Bet: Storm +15.5 (-110)
