Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2457 Posts
Sean Koerner
2457 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.2K
Followers
455.9K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Miller is similar to Bryan Woo (cashed on his under 5.5 yesterday) in that he has pretty extreme home/road splits thanks to T-Mobile Park being the most strikeout-friendly park for pitchers. Simply getting him away from Seattle gives him a noticeable downgrade in my model. He’s also shaping up as a sell-high candidate. Miller has racked up 23 strikeouts over his last three starts, but my expected K model had him closer to just 15.2 over that span. A huge reason for the gap is that hitters continue to chase pitches out of the zone at a career-high 38% rate against him. That’s the primary reason he’s sporting a career-best 30.5% K rate so far this season. Once you adjust for his favorable schedule and that unsustainably high chase rate, my model has him much closer to a 23.5% true strikeout pitcher. I’d expect opponents to become more disciplined, with his chase rate regressing closer to his 28% career average, which would naturally pull his strikeout rate back toward his 22.9% career mark. The Pirates rank around league average in chase rate, making them a decent candidate to force some of that regression. There’s also a sneaky lineup-construction angle here. I’m projecting Miller for a full workload today around 90 pitches before Luis Castillo piggybacks him (or another RP? Not sure what their plan is), which works out to roughly 23 batters faced. That would make Ryan O’Hearn, the No. 5 hitter, his most likely final batter, although there’s obviously some variance around that. The key is that the Pirates’ easiest stretch to strike out is hitters 6-9. Miller is likely to face that group only twice, while the tougher top five should get a third look at him. That’s a subtle but meaningful ding to his strikeout ceiling. My sim has him staying under 5.5 strikeouts at a fair price closer to -150.
130
17
Pending
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday5-2-071%
2.39u
Last 7 Days21-15-058%
6.52u
Last 30 Days61-51-254%
11.16u
All Time2265-1861-3854%
249.71u
Top Leagues
NFL1225-970-2055%
141.31u
MLB372-325-753%
45.90u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA193-151-455%
28.73u
NCAAF38-28-256%
5.17u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
Golf8-16-033%
0.12u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.