This article marks the fifth entry of my preseason season-long player props, with an aim of having one NFL prop for each team. The point of this series isn’t just to fire off 32 random bets I like. There are so many season-long markets out there that it can get overwhelming pretty quickly, so I wanted to use this series as a way to go team by team, show how I’m projecting each offense/team, and then land on one actionable NFL betting takeaway.
A lot of these prop lines are going to move quickly once I bet them and post them. That’s just part of the game at this point — but that’s also why I think the reasoning matters even more, not less.
If the market moves off my number, I don’t want the reaction to be, “Welp, the prop is gone. Moving on.”
I want this to still be useful because the writeup is really about how I’m thinking through the team, the player usage, the range of outcomes, and where the market may still be mispricing things.
The bet is just where the process led me. The process itself is what I think makes the series worth following. And with that, let's get into my season-long prop for the New York Giants.
Giants Prop Bet
- Abdul Carter Over 5.75 sacks -110 (DraftKings)
Getting Into Defensive Props
One area where I’ve really expanded my approach/process is defensive player projections. Tackle props specifically have become one of my specialties.
It’s a market not as many people bet on, which makes the lines softer. But by doing so, I also have a much better grasp of both sides of the ball, where my IDP process helps steer which player props to attack on offense as well.
Not many people have the time or desire to worry about defensive players, and I think that creates a bit of a blind spot. Plus, for a game that centers around tackling the ball carrier, it’s actually surprising how tackle props aren’t something more people want to analyze and bet on. It makes the entire game that much more interesting/enjoyable when you’re also tracking defensive players.
The same goes for sacks, which have a massive impact on the game. Anytime a quarterback gets sacked, it significantly lowers the chances that team scores on the drive. Sacks are drive killers.
A lot of people just look at sack totals and use that to determine which players are good at rushing the QB. That is a great place to start, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
How often a player can pressure the quarterback is usually even more predictive than sack rate itself because it’s much steadier. Players who pressure the QB at a high rate often tend to have a higher sack rate eventually.
But there is still plenty of variance/luck when it comes to sacks, just like most stats. That’s why I try to estimate how many “expected sacks” a player should have and see which players are playing above/below expectations.
That usually helps identify which players are good buy-low/sell-high candidates when it comes to sack props.
Why Abdul Carter is a Buy-Low Candidate
Abdul Carter had a disappointing rookie season with only four sacks, but his underlying data tells a different story. My model had him closer to 7.9 expected sacks, which was a +3.9 difference — that was the highest gap among all EDGE rushers.
Carter totaled 72 pressures, which ranked 7th overall and was just seven behind Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. Carter also led the league with 48 “quick pressures,” which are pressures that occur in under 2.5 seconds.
Quick pressures are arguably the most predictive metric when it comes to expected sack rate, since they are most tied to pure pass-rushing skill. Yet Carter finished with only four sacks.
So there are really two possible takeaways here.
- Either the 3rd overall pick in last year’s draft is simply one of the worst EDGE rushers when it comes to actually bringing the QB down after generating pressure (certainly possible).
- Or we have a very talented EDGE rusher who could see a massive boost in his second season if he simply gets slightly better luck turning pressure into sacks.
I’m betting on the latter, and it doesn’t require that much of a leap of faith.
Carter had a ton of issues off the field and faced internal suspensions for antics during team meetings last season. Something will have to give under new head coach John Harbaugh, who runs a tight ship. If he can maximize Carter’s potential in Year 2, he could unlock a Micah Parsons-like EDGE rusher.
The thing is, we don’t even need an All-Pro type season for Carter to get to 6+ sacks. This seems like a no-brainer buy-low spot, and the line looks like it could be around two sacks too low.
He’s also worth a sprinkle to lead the league in sacks at +7500.
