This article marks the second entry of my preseason season-long player props, with an aim of having one NFL prop for each team. The point of this series isn’t just to fire off 32 random bets I like. There are so many season-long markets out there that it can get overwhelming pretty quickly, so I wanted to use this series as a way to go team by team, show how I’m projecting each offense/team, and then land on one actionable NFL betting takeaway.
A lot of these prop lines are going to move quickly once I bet them and post them. That’s just part of the game at this point — but that’s also why I think the reasoning matters even more, not less.
If the market moves off my number, I don’t want the reaction to be, “Welp, the prop is gone. Moving on.”
I want this to still be useful because the writeup is really about how I’m thinking through the team, the player usage, the range of outcomes, and where the market may still be mispricing things.
The bet is just where the process led me. The process itself is what I think makes the series worth following. And with that, let's get into my season-long prop for the Cleveland Browns.
Browns Prop: Quinshon Judkins Under 924.5 rushing yards (-110; DraftKings)
Quinshon Judkins’ career got off to a rocky start last year after he missed all of camp and the preseason due to legal issues that were later resolved in August. He didn’t sign his rookie contract until Sept. 6, just days before the season started.
He was quickly brought up to speed, ramped up in practice, and made his debut in Week 2, when he rushed for 10/61/0. From there, he operated as the Browns' workhorse back and racked up 80+ rushing yards in three straight games.
My comp for him out of college was David Montgomery, and that didn’t really change after the first few games. If anything, I thought he looked even more polished as a runner than I expected him to be as a rookie.
Similar to my Michael Wilson writeup, this bet isn’t so much about Judkins' talent — it’s more about factors outside of his control that lead me to believe this number is a tad too high.
Judkins’ Rookie Season Metrics
There were 49 running backs who had 100+ rush attempts last season — here’s how Judkins ranked in a variety of key metrics:
| Stat | Rank (out of 49) |
|---|---|
| Yards Per Carry (YPC) | 45th |
| Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) | 29th |
| Explosive Run Rate | 40th |
| Stuff Rate | 49th |
| Missed Tackle Rate | 33rd |
| Yards Before Contact (YBC) | 46th |
| Yards After Contact (YAC) | 26th |
| Success Rate | 47th |
There’s a lot to digest there. Let me simplify how I view it.
Ultimately, YPC is all that matters when it comes to projecting/estimating how many rushing yards a RB will get — Judkins was one of the worst backs in the NFL in that department.
However, YPC has always been less predictive than other metrics because there’s a ton of variance outside the RB’s control. RYOE, missed tackle rate, and YAC are better at describing the RB’s actual skill level when it comes to picking up yards.
Judkins was clearly better in those areas, ranking in the 26th-33rd range, which is closer to the middle of the pack. Still, that isn't exactly great.
The huge concerns are yards before contact and stuff rate, where Judkins ranked near the bottom of qualified backs. Those are largely offensive line stats, and the Browns do not have the dominant O-line they once had during Nick Chubb's prime years.
However, they spent the offseason attempting to rebuild it by bringing in new bodies and even spending a 1st-round pick on Spencer Fano (which cashed my Top 10 pick -120 ticket on him).
I think we could see the Browns' OL improve a bit this year, but having an entirely new unit will take time to gel and build chemistry. Thus, I still view them as a bottom-10 OL that could struggle in the first part of the season.
I think a fair estimate of 3.95-4.05 yards per rush is a good starting point when projecting Judkins for Year 2. That would put him in the 30th-35th range, which is where his more skill-based metrics ranked. That said, there are still other factors that could prevent him from becoming, say, an RB who could average 4.2+ yards per rush.
Judkins Returns From Significant Injury
Judkins suffered a dislocated right ankle and fractured right fibula in Week 16 against the Bills. The surgery was successful, and his rehab has reportedly gone so well that we are getting nothing but positive vibes heading into camp. There seem to be essentially zero concerns over his Week 1 status.
Being healthy enough to play Week 1 and being primed to be at peak health are two very different things, though. These are tricky injuries that have caused other players to not quite be 100% the following year.
Tony Pollard suffered a similar injury (fractured fibula/ankle sprain) during the 2022 playoffs and was able to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2023 season. He played all 17 games and set a career high in rush attempts with 252, but he also had a career-low 4.0 yards per rush.
We know yards per rush is a noisy stat, and anytime you see a massive jump in workload, you would expect that to regress closer to league average.
However, Pollard’s superpower at the time was his ability to generate yards after contact. He saw his YAC plummet nearly a full yard in his return from injury, which could have been at least partly due to the nature of the injury.
Just watching him that year, he didn’t seem to have the same burst he had in previous seasons. We saw a lot of that come back the following year with the Titans.
Every player and recovery is different, but it’s fair to wonder if Judkins isn’t quite 100% this season and if his YAC rate takes a slight dip. That wouldn’t be ideal, because just about every other factor outside of his control is already working against him.
Dreaded Browns Factor
This is arguably the most important factor: At the end of the day, we have to remember that Judkins is the lead back of the Browns. They are very much in rebuild mode, with a season win total of 5.5 at the time of writing.
I actually like a lot of the moves the Browns have made and think they could surprise in 2027 and beyond once they move on from the historically bad Deshaun Watson contract and potentially grab a top QB prospect in next year’s draft.
But a lot of the recent moves have a ripple effect on Judkins, especially the Myles Garrett trade.
Garrett is the best defensive player on the planet right now, so his loss will surely be felt. I still think Cleveland's defense is good, and I love Jared Verse’s upside. In a couple of seasons, I think we’ll look back and understand why this was a savvy time for the Browns to trade away their best asset when winning in 2026 isn’t the goal.
As a result, we could see the Browns continue to face mostly negative game scripts. That has a huge impact on Judkins — he’s much more of an early down back who requires positive game scripts to elevate his overall volume on the ground.
While new head coach Todd Monken may want to focus on running the ball — that approach worked with Derrick Henry on the Ravens — game scripts could foil that plan and force the Browns into more pass-heavy approaches in the second half compared to Baltimore.
The Browns’ other second-year back, Dylan Sampson, was much more involved in the passing game last year, and I expect that to continue in Year 2. I was actually surprised by how much they went away from him when Judkins was active last year.
There’s always a chance we see Sampson more involved on early downs than expected, which would chip away at Judkins’ upside.
Deshaun, Shedeur Lead Shaky Passing Game
This goes hand in hand with the “Browns factor,” as we should see a QB battle heading into Week 1 between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. I’m not sure either one will necessarily elevate the passing game in any meaningful way — this is already a bit of a lose-lose situation.
The Browns drafted a couple of weapons to their passing game who I think will pay off in 2027 and beyond in WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Both are 1st-round “talents” who complement each other well. The Browns also have one of the best young tight ends in the game in Harold Fannin Jr.
So this is a pass-catching group that could start to elevate the passing game as soon as this year, which would allow the Browns to not lean so heavily on the run game early in games.
Another factor I’ve yet to mention is that Judkins faced a stacked box at a league-high 45% rate. It’s going to be extremely difficult for any RB to average 4+ yards per rush when he is facing that many defenders inside the box at that high of a rate.
Unfortunately, I think teams will be able to continue doing that with either Watson or Sanders under center. So we should see Judkins continue to face one of the highest rates of stacked boxes in the league again this year.
Recap
Judkins should see plenty of volume as the clear lead back in a Todd Monken offense, and he could end up being the Browns’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 2022. That wouldn’t shock me at all given how impressive he looked at times last season as a true workhorse back.
But everything else is stacked against him, quite literally, considering he faced the highest stacked box rate in the league last year. I see no reason that number doesn’t remain high again this year.
Trading away Myles Garrett should negatively impact Cleveland's defense in the short term, even though I think it was the right long-term move as it builds what is a very talented young core on that side of the ball. That could lead to more negative game scripts, which would not only force the Browns to dial back their rush volume in the second half of games, but also favor a pass-catching back like Sampson.
Then you have to factor in the Browns' revamped offensive line that may eventually be an improvement over last year, but still looks below average for now.
Finally, Judkins is returning from an injury that could prevent him from being truly 100% early in the season. As we saw in his underlying rate stats, he can ill afford to have any setback in the more skill-based metrics he can control because everything else around him will make it very tough for him to maintain 4+ yards per rush.
As much fun as these season-long rushing yard props would be if the end result depended only on all the factors I laid out above, at the end of the day, how many games Judkins can play near 100% health usually decides these bets. Most RBs miss 2-3 games per year on average, higher than most positions given that workhorse backs get tackled more than any other player.
If Judkins manages to stay healthy for all 17 games, this prop is probably toast even if he averages a measly 3.3 yards per carry. On the flip side, he could truly break out in Year 2, average 4.4+ yards per rush and 17+ carries per game, but suffer a multi-week injury that forces him to miss 5+ games and finish well under 900 yards.
In either scenario, my bet was neither right nor wrong, because a ton of luck is going to be involved in the actual outcome.
But the process itself sees him as a true workhorse back who should see an uptick in efficiency closer to his true skill level in the 4.0 yards per rush range.
However, the Browns’ inability to create enough positive game scripts — combined with the reality that he could miss around 2.5 games due to injury as a true workhorse back — puts him closer to the 885-yard range.
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