This article marks to beginning of my preseason season-long player props, with an aim of having one NFL prop for each team. The point of this series isn’t just to fire off 32 random bets I like. There are so many season-long markets out there that it can get overwhelming pretty quickly, so I wanted to use this series as a way to go team by team, show how I’m projecting each offense/team, and then land on one actionable NFL betting takeaway.
A lot of these lines are going to move quickly once I bet them and post them. That’s just part of the game at this point — but that’s also why I think the reasoning matters even more, not less.
If the market moves off my number, I don’t want the reaction to be, “Welp, the prop is gone. Moving on.”
I want this to still be useful because the writeup is really about how I’m thinking through the team, the player usage, the range of outcomes, and where the market may still be mispricing things.
The bet is just where the process led me. The process itself is what I think makes the series worth following. And with that, let's get into my season-long prop for the Arizona Cardinals.
The Pick: Michael Wilson Under 749.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It’d be easy to see this and think, “Oh, Sean thinks Michael Wilson sucks and is fading him.”
That couldn’t be further from the truth.
I’ve felt Wilson has been underrated over his first couple years in the NFL, and last year he finally broke out with a career-best 78 receptions, 1,006 yards, and seven touchdowns. I even bet on his overs, alt overs, and “lead the game in receiving”-type props at times last season because his upside was massive in the right spots.
That’s actually part of why I’m going the other way here.
If you’re here expecting Wilson slander, there isn’t any. Instead, let me walk through why I’m on his under despite thinking he’s a talented receiver who could continue to ascend as one of the more overlooked receivers in the league.
The Marvin Harrison Jr. Factor
Marvin Harrison Jr. missed five games last season due to injury, but he was also knocked out of a couple others early or limited during them.
Wilson took full advantage when Harrison wasn’t on the field, so I wanted to break down Wilson's underlying target rate based on Harrison's availability.
Another important split is the first five weeks with Kyler Murray under center versus Week 6 on, when Jacoby Brissett took over. The Cardinals’ passing offense erupted once Brissett became the starting quarterback, so I think it makes the most sense to focus on Week 6 on and then look at how Harrison’s availability impacted Wilson’s usage.
Here were Wilson’s routes, targets, and target rate from Week 6 on:
- Harrison played full game: 156 routes; 22 targets; 14.1% target rate
- Harrison played part of the game: 98 routes; 18 targets; 18.4% target rate
- Harrison out: 211 routes; 68 targets; 32.2% target rate
As you can see, Harrison's availability had a massive impact on Wilson’s target share and production. A huge chunk of Wilson’s routes came with Harrison either out or limited, and that gave Wilson a major boost during the second half of the season.
Assuming Harrison enjoys a healthier 2026 season and takes another step forward in Year 3, which wouldn’t be surprising given the type of prospect he was coming out of college, it’ll be tough for Wilson to repeat a 1,000-yard season.
Wilson Was Healthy for All 17 Games
Wilson was healthy enough to play all 17 games last season.
That matters.
Football is a violent sport, and most full-time WRs tend to miss around two games per season on average.
Wilson operated at the absolute absolute peak of his ceiling outcome last year: he stayed perfectly healthy, Harrison missed time, the team threw at a historic clip, and Brissett played aggressive, YOLO football.
All of these factors helped fuel Michael Wilson’s career year.
Jeremiyah Love Leads Crowded RB Room
The Cardinals became an ultra-pass-heavy offense once Jacoby Brissett took over in Week 6, leading the league with 40.6 pass attempts per game. That was a dream scenario for Wilson, especially with Harrison missing a handful of games.
Looking ahead to 2026, I’m expecting Arizona to dial back the pass rate a bit. New head coach Mike LaFleur comes over from the Rams as a Sean McVay disciple, and while I do expect him to build an explosive pass offense, the Cardinals also surprised most people by taking Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft.
That tells us they should be much more balanced this season.
We also have to remember the Cardinals' RB room was completely decimated last year. James Conner and Trey Benson both suffered season-ending injuries, forcing Arizona to rely on Michael Carter, Bam Knight, and Emari Demercado for most of the season. This led to their pass-happy ways with Brissett.
Adding a generational talent like Love — while also having Conner and Tyler Allgeier as backup RBs — is a massive upgrade. It should allow the Cardinals to avoid having to throw 40-plus times per game as often as they did down the stretch last year.
I’m projecting less pass volume for Arizona this season, which obviously eats into Wilson’s target ceiling.
Love should also factor into the passing game more than last year’s RBs did. He could be a 3-4 reception per game type of back, which would chip away at Wilson’s target share.
Will Carson Beck Lead Late-Season Tank?
The Cardinals are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, which should force them into pass-heavy game scripts even if they want to be more balanced on offense. That’s the obvious risk when taking the under on Wilson’s receiving yards.
However, it also creates a secret escape hatch toward the end of the season.
If the Cardinals end up in full-on tank mode, it would make sense for them to see what they have in third-round pick Carson Beck later in the season as they start preparing for 2027 and beyond. They’ll either want to see if Beck has anything, or make sure they end up with a top pick in what should be a better QB class.
I’d imagine there’s a decent chance we see Beck start the final handful of games. That creates some uncertainty, but overall, I would view it as a big downgrade for the passing game and for someone like Wilson.
Recap
I'd argue Michael Wilson operated much closer to his ceiling than his median last season.
Wilson benefited from a healthy season, the Cardinals’ RB room being decimated, Marvin Harrison Jr. missing five-plus games, and Jacoby Brissett playing YOLO ball for the final 12 games.
Now the Cardinals have added a generational talent at RB in Jeremiyah Love, Harrison potentially playing more than 12 games, and the possibility that rookie quarterback Carson Beck makes starts toward the end of the season. It's reasonable to think Wilson is more likely to fall back toward his median outcome than repeat his ceiling season.
Could Wilson go over this number? Absolutely.
If Brissett starts all 17 games, Wilson plays all 17 games again, Harrison misses another chunk of the season, Love doesn’t have the impact I’m expecting, and Trey McBride misses time, another 1,000-yard season wouldn’t shock me. If the RB depth chart gets hit by injuries again and Arizona has to throw at an absurd rate, Wilson has a clear path to beating this number.
That’s why these are projections, not predictions.
But when I stack up the most likely outcomes, I think Wilson’s usage has more to lose than gain this season. I have his fair prop closer to 700.5 receiving yards, which makes Under 749.5 my favorite Cardinals season-long bet to make right now.
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