This article continues my series of preseason season-long player props. The point of this series isn’t just to fire off 32 random bets I like.
I typically focus more on actual preseason and weekly bets. But this year, I wanted to force myself to do a deep dive on each team.
I do this repeatedly anyway to tweak my season-long player projections and set up my weekly projection models, so I wanted to force myself to land on at least one official takeaway bet, prop or angle for each team.
And yes, a lot of these lines are going to move quickly once I bet them and post them. That’s just part of the game at this point. But that’s also why I think the reasoning matters even more, not less.
If the market moves off my number, I don’t want the reaction to be, “Welp, the prop is gone. I'm moving on.” I want this to still be useful because the writeup is really about how I’m thinking through the team after doing a full deep dive on its 2025 season and 2026 outlook.
It’s the type of process where I start to form opinions that help me with both sports betting and fantasy, and I figured I would share them along the way so any serious prop bettor and/or fantasy player can have various takeaways.
I’ve always viewed them as all one and the same. The bet is just where the process led me. The process itself is what I think makes the series worth following. And with that, I'm diving into my Chicago Bears prop now.
Bears Prop Bet
- Luther Burden III to Lead the League in Receiving Yards +9000 (FanDuel)
Why Burden’s Rookie Year Was a Bit Misleading
Burden fell to the second round of the draft last season, but he was a clear-cut first-round talent. I think some teams were scared away by his drop-off in play during his final season at Missouri, along with the usual “character concerns” we tend to hear from scouts.
At the end of the day, Burden was a first-round talent who fell to the second round and landed in a situation that wasn’t going to set him up for a massive rookie role right away.
It sort of reminded me of how CeeDee Lamb landed on a Cowboys team that already had Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. That took some pressure off Lamb as a rookie, but once Dallas moved on from both veterans and Lamb became the alpha, he turned into one of the best wide receivers in the league.
I brought up a similar phenomenon last year with Jaxon Smith-Njigba after the Seahawks moved on from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Sure enough, Smith-Njigba broke out with a monster season.
I’m not saying Burden is necessarily going to be on par with Lamb or Smith-Njigba, but he landed on a Bears team that already had DJ Moore and Rome Odunze established as the top two wide outs.
Ben Johnson didn’t think Burden had a good enough grasp of the playbook early in the season, and veteran Olamide Zaccheaus was taking snaps away from him.
Eventually, Burden got his chance to be more of a full-time player in Week 10, but even then, he was still limited to around a 60% routes run rate over the next 10 games through the playoffs.
Efficiency Was Elite
While Burden never really saw elite playing time, his production when he was on the field was elite.
He had the third-highest yards per route run rate among qualified wide receivers at 2.82, trailing only Puka Nacua and Smith-Njigba. That also ranked as one of the best rookie seasons of all time by yards per route run.
That’s the key part of this bet.
I’m not projecting him to simply maintain a 2.82 YPRR on a massive route spike as if that’s the median outcome. There's going to be some regression baked in.
But if his playing time jumps from around 60% to the 80%+ range, he can afford to regress a decent amount in efficiency and still take a massive leap in raw production.
And there's at least a chance Burden is just that good, where we see similar efficiency with a huge spike in playing time.
Why the Ceiling is Real
With Moore now in Buffalo and Burden likely to have Johnson’s trust heading into Year 2, we could see his playing time spike in a big way.
I think Burden has similar traits to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Smith-Njigba, where his ceiling range of outcomes gets close to those two wide receivers. He still has Odunze to compete with, and I still think Colston Loveland could emerge as a Brock Bowers/Trey McBride caliber tight end, which would obviously limit Burden’s upside.
But when you take a 90/1 bet, you aren’t really expecting to win it. You’re looking for a scenario where the player can at least make it interesting, and I think Burden absolutely can.
The path is pretty simple: Burden has a massive Year 2 breakout in playing time, maintains something close to last year’s efficiency and maybe gets a little help from Odunze and/or Loveland missing a handful of games.
That isn’t some insane long shot. Pass catchers miss time every year.
If that happens, Burden has the type of profile where he could make a run at the league lead in receiving yards.
Why I Like Burden to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards
I tend to shy away from season-long prop overs because injuries can instantly make those losing tickets.
I also don’t love having too much money tied up for six-plus months on payouts that are around even money.
So when I do like an over, I prefer taking fliers on long shot markets where the payout actually matches the risk.
I would probably take this down to around 60/1. After that, it’s up to you whether you still like it at that price or would rather pivot to his over 824.5 receiving yards, which I’m also showing value on.
Again, these writeups aren’t so much about the exact bet itself. They’re about finding the best ways to invest in a team/player.
For the Bears, it’s simply betting on Burden to exceed expectations this year. I’ve been targeting him heavily in fantasy, taking his overs where I can, and I think the fun way to really invest in his ceiling is to bet him to lead the league in receiving yards at +9000.
Crazier things have happened.
