Naoya Inoue vs. Jason Moloney Boxing Odds & Picks: Can Three-Division Champ Stay Undefeated? (Saturday, Oct. 31)
Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Naoya Inoue of Japan, Jason Moloney of Australia.
Naoya Inoue vs. Jason Moloney Odds
|Inoue Odds||-1115 [BET NOW]|
|Moloney Odds||+650 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+2500 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||6.5 Rounds (-106/-125) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Approx. 11 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Three-division champion and current WBA/IBF bantamweight titlist Naoya Inoue (19-0, 16 KO) makes his Top Rank Boxing debut against Jason Moloney (21-1, 18 KO) on ESPN+.
Inoue has been every bit of his “Monster” nickname in the ring whether fighting in his native Japan, the United Kingdom or the United States. This fight marks his first trip to the MGM Bubble in Las Vegas where he will look to improve on his 14-0 record in world title fights. Moloney, the 29-year-old Australian challenger, gets his second crack at a world title after losing a split decision for the IBF belt in 2018.
You can check out the full Inoue vs. Maloney odds list and fight breakdown below.
Will Inoue’s Power be the Difference?
Inoue’s list of accomplishments through his 19 career fights are nothing short of impressive: title belts in three different weight classes, eight wins against current or former world champions, No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
The way he has been able to reach this level of success is also impressive. He has scored a knockout victory in 16 of his 19 professional fights (84%) and has been fighting for title belts since he was 20 years old. Inoue’s power is no joke — he won four of his past five fights within three rounds, including two first-round knockouts.
His KO against Juan Carlos Payano was masterful:
That type of one-punch power typically keeps Inoue’s opponents at bay. In his last bout against Nonito Donaire, though, there were points in the fight where that was different. Early on, Donaire was nervous to pressure “Monster” because of the hand speed and counter punches that were sure to come back at him.
But by the middle of that fight, Donaire had slowed the pace and had Inoue staggered. Then, all of a sudden, Inoue roared back in the championship rounds to score a knockdown that nearly ended things.
The combination of power, quick hands and experience will cause issues for Moloney who is making a huge step up in competition. As mentioned, Moloney has fought for a title once before and came up just short. His most recent fight with Leonardo Baez in June showed that he also has bruising power, as he pummeled Baez for seven rounds until he quit.
One area where Moloney could gain an advantage is attacking Inoue with body shots. According to CompuBox, Donaire was able to land 43 total body shots (3.5 per round) against Inoue, which helped slow him down.
When Inoue isn’t moving, he’s less dangerous and can be caught with combinations. In Moloney’s last fight, he landed 5.4 body shots per round against Baez, which eventually caused him to retire after the seventh round.
Inoue vs. Moloney Pick
Inoue’s odds reflect the legend he has built over the years with his exciting style, but laying -1115 (91.7% implied odds) is clearly out of the question here. Even a win by knockout for “Monster” is listed at -335 (77% implied odds).
The odds that this fight goes the distance are listed at -455 for “No” and +300 for “Yes,” but the over/under on the round total is basically a coin flip. I think Moloney is being overlooked in a fight where expect him to be very competitive — at least up to the 10th round.
I’m not sure he has enough in his tank to withstand the kind of flurry that almost finished Donaire, but the Australian is crafty enough to make it through the seventh. I’ll take the over and sweat this one out with Jason’s twin brother Andrew.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-106)