We are a month away from the rematch between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin, and while most of the action won’t come in until we get closer to fight night, there has been some movement in the market already.
The first fight ended in a controversial split draw with Dave Moretti scoring the fight 115–113 for Golovkin, Don Trella scoring it 114–114 and Adalaide Byrd scoring it 118–110 for Alvarez.
Byrd’s scorecard was the outlier, and she faced intense scrutiny after the fight. The general consensus was that Moretti and Trella had appropriate cards and that a Golovkin win or a draw were acceptable results.
After the draw, the two fighters agreed to a rematch in May, but Canelo tested positive for the banned substance Clenbuterol. The Mexican’s camp infamously blamed contaminated meat for the positive test. GGG would still fight that weekend, flooring also-ran Vanes Martirosyan in the second round without breaking a sweat.
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Golovkin is once again the favorite for the fight and is listed at -155 at the Westgate. That isn’t all that off from the price of the first fight last September when GGG hovered in the -140 to -165 range in the weeks leading up to the bout.
Westgate SuperBook manager Jeff Sherman spoke to the Action Network about the early betting action on what could be boxing’s biggest night.
“We opened this fight at Golovkin -155/+135 back on June 14th, and initially bettors laid the price, but since then it’s come back down to the original price,” Sherman said. “We are expecting the price to go down a little bit right before the fight, though, just solely based on the result of the last fight.”
That is in line with the offshore market, as well. Both Pinnacle and Bookmaker opened the fight at Golovkin -170/+150 and shortened the price on GGG before moving back to the original number.
Where there has been action is on the Total Rounds prop. The margin in the last fight was razor-thin — and even though Golovkin has a terrific knockout ratio, bettors are expecting this one to get to the judges’ table.
“We opened the over 11.5 rounds at -180, and it’s been bet up to -260, so everyone is expecting this one to go the distance as well,” Sherman added.
GGG-Canelo II will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, Sept. 15.