Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds, Pick, Prediction: Best Bet for Boxing’s Latest Spectacle

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds, Pick, Prediction: Best Bet for Boxing’s Latest Spectacle article feature image

Ester Lin/Most Valuable Promotions. Pictured: Boxer Jake Paul and MMA veteran Nate Diaz

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds

Paul Odds
Diaz Odds
Total (Over/Under)
7.5 (-125 / -110)
American Airlines Center in Dallas
8 p.m. ET (main event at approx. 11 p.m. ET)
Odds as of Saturday night and via DraftKings

It's here: Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz– and that means it's time to break down the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz odds and our pick, prediction and best bet for boxing's latest spectacle.

This is one hell of a pivot from last weekend when we got Terence Crawford and Nayoa Inoue in performance-of-the-year contenders within days of each other and in two of the biggest fights of the year.

But this pivot is one suitable for the combat-sports world given that, if nothing else, it'll be a spectacle that – let's be honest – may generate a rival amount of fanfare and curiosity because of its cross-promotional elements.

Paul (6-1, 4 KOs) will fight Diaz (boxing debut) in a 10-round scrap this Saturday at American Airlines Center in Dallas (8 p.m. ET, DAZN PPV).

As we get closer and closer to the main event, which will start at approximately 11 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 5, Jake Paul is the clear betting favorite at -400. Nate Diaz, meanwhile, is a +300 underdog.

It's a cross-sport, cross-world rivalry between an influencer turned cruiserweight and an MMA all-timer, who'll step into a boxing ring in Diaz's first non-UFC venture in years.

Also on the pay-per-view card is undisputed featherweight champion Amanda Serrano (44-2-1, 30 KOs), who'll rematch fellow Brooklynite and former world champion Heather Hardy (24-2, 4 KOs) in an exciting co-feature.

This preview will mostly be Paul vs Diaz-focused, since it's the closer fight, but I will touch on Serrano vs. Hardy (as a New Yorker, it's in my spiritual contract).

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Analysis

Paul, 26, is bigger, stronger and should be the better boxer, having practiced the discipline – and strictly that one – for several years. In fact, his involvement in the sport publicly goes back exactly five years to this point.

MMA boxing and boxing boxing are different. Diaz, 38, is the better combat sports competitor, and he is much more accomplished, sure, but in a boxing ring, he just has very few advantages.

Paul has a 6-foot-1 frame with a 76-inch reach and has weighed in between 183 and 192 pounds for his fights. For this one, Paul officially tapped the scale at 185 pounds.

Diaz, who formally weighed 184.9 pounds, has the exact same height and reach but is naturally smaller.

THE WEIGH-IN WAS HEATED TODAY 😤😤😤#PaulDiaz is LIVE on DAZN PPV on August 5 🔥@jakepaul | @NateDiaz209@MostVpromotions | @realfightinc | @celsiusofficial | #CELSIUSLiveFit | #CELSIUSBrandPartnerpic.twitter.com/FQniDgdV9V

— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) August 4, 2023

In the UFC, he competed, most recently, at 170 pounds (welterweight in MMA, which is technically light heavyweight in boxing, two pounds above the super middleweight limit).

Diaz, 12 years Paul's senior, has also been in far more wars. In pro-MMA, he's 21-13.

While Diaz was making his debut, the Boston Red Sox were in the midst of breaking The Curse, Eminem was about to release Encore, JBL was the WWE champion, and the UFC was still eight years away from introducing women to the company.

It was in October 2004 – a long-ass time ago.

Diaz has losses in the discipline he actually practices, so Paul being a 4-1 favorite in this new one he's trying out is hardly surprising.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Pick, Prediction and Best Bets

I've leaned Jake Paul the whole way. The question is really how.

I gave a decision a look at +290, but ultimately, this is a 10-round bout. Paul's conditioning isn't what Nate Diaz's is, but could Diaz's gas tank withstand Paul's offense for 10 rounds?

Here's ultimately what I think: Paul wins the fight with a doctor's stoppage late.

Diaz's cardio and conditioning are insane – even now – so I don't think he gets flatlined the way Ben Askren, Nate Robinson and Tyson Woodley were.

One thing about Paul, we know he can crack, and while he couldn't beat Tommy Fury, he's undefeated against former MMA fighters, including Anderson Silva, whom I think would beat Diaz in a boxing match.

The Pick: Jake Paul to win in Rounds 6-10 (+210 at DraftKings)

My one caveat is that I'd call Diaz a fun longshot underdog, per usual.

You know he'll go for it, he doesn't care about what's before him, and he has the toughness to drag Paul into deep waters, causing immense discomfort to the Most Valuable Promotions CEO.

Five years ago, I'd take the 'dog here. But I can't get there this week.

Looking for where to bet the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz fight? Click on the link to learn more.

Amanda Serrano vs Heather Hardy Odds and Pick

Serrano Odds
Hardy Odds
Total (Over/Under)
8.5 (-120 / -110)
American Airlines Center in Dallas
8 p.m. ET (co-main event at 10 p.m. ET)
Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel

Day after day, the sportsbooks get more and more disrespectful to Heather Hardy, who told me she was chosen by Amanda Serrano to take this rematch as a solid.

Hardy, upon becoming the WBO featherweight champion in 2018, gave Serrano her first title defense, a losing effort at the Madison Square Garden Theater four years ago in a hard-fought decision.

There was turmoil in Hardy's camp prior to that fight by her own admission.

🥊 NEW MANDATORY ‼️@BryanFonsecaNY & @ShantelleSChand are joined by the GREAT & rejuvenated @HeatherHardyBox, who opened up about her first fight vs. Amanda Serrano (@SerranoSisters) + MORE 🗣️


FULL SHOW: https://t.co/w3joINiKdq
AUDIO: https://t.co/uHtWhimsMwpic.twitter.com/5ncCg4wFfo

— The Mandatory with Bryan & Shantelle (@TheMandatoryTKO) May 23, 2023

This time, Hardy feels rejuvenated and expects to put on a better performance.

However, Serrano is still Serrano – and one of the top pound-for-pound female boxers ever.

I was mildly surprised to see Serrano at -115 to -135 to knock out Hardy, who has never been stopped.

Serrano hasn't stopped any of her last five opponents after more than a decade of being a knockout artist. I think Hardy is tough enough to last all 10 rounds a second time, even at 41 – a younger 41 than most, given her pro career is just 11 years, three fewer than Serrano, who'll be 35 this fall.

Pick: Serrano by points or decision (+130)

(I also like Serrano to win on points on DraftKings at +120 with my Paul by TKO pick, also +120, as a two-legger at +384 odds.)

Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!

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