2024 PDC World Darts Championship Predictions & Best Bets
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The 2024 PDC World Darts Championship is upon us! An annual cult favorite among Action Network staff, the PDC World Darts Championship comes around every December and brings us rowdy crowds, bad beats and tungsten tension — what more could you ask for?
Here's how two of Action's most die-hard darting aficionados are betting the opening rounds, which begin on Friday, Dec. 15 and last up until Dec. 23.
PDC World Darts Championship Predictions & Best Bets
Mark Gallant's Darts Betting Card
Paolo Nebrida +2.5 (+160 at Caesars) vs. Simon Whitlock
I'm all aboard the Paolo Nebrida hype train. Well, there's not really a Paolo Nebrida hype train, but I'm happy to make one right now and be the conductor.
Simon Whitlock ain't what he once was, but he's priced as if he's playing someone who averages in the 70s. The statistical difference between these two players does not warrant the gap in the odds, not by a long shot.
Nebrida's odds were a bit better a week or two ago (perhaps I did start a hype train already) and his moneyline topped out at about +1300. It's now in the +600 to +800 range at most books, which I'm less fond of, but he can still be had at a juicy +160 just to win a set at Caesars. Other books are around +140 and some even have this spread at minus money, so act now!
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Luke Littler -1.5 (-125 at bet365) vs. Christian Kist
Here is someone with an actual hype train. Luke Littler, 16 years of age, has Phil Taylor, the best player of all time, saying that the youngster himself has a chance to be the best ever when all is said and done.
Littler is around -275 on the moneyline against Christian Kist, however "The Lipstick" is dealing with a hand injury per reports — an injury that led him to average below 70 in the Players Championship Finals a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, Littler beat Gian van Veen, another emerging superstar, in the World Youth Championship with a 102 average.
We don't know for sure if Kist's hand will still be a factor, but even if he's healthy, at -125, I'm willing to bet that Littler can win by two clear sets.
Reynaldo Rivera +475 (BetMGM) vs. Keane Barry
Here's another big underdog I quite fancy. Keane Barry has not had great success in his four World Championships thus far and his game has not really improved much over the years since he burst onto the scene as a teenager himself. Last year, Grant Sampson beat him in R1 as a 9-1 underdog!
This year, he has drawn a more polished opponent in Reynaldo Rivera, yet he's still a big favorite. There are only a few points difference in the average between these two, yet you can get Rivera at nearly 5-1 at BetMGM. This is so mispriced compared to the rest of the market, which has Rivera closer to 3-1, that there are actually arbitrage opportunities.
Whether you do that or take Rivera straight up, you're getting some serious value here.
Under 1.5 Nine-Dart Finishes (-280 at DraftKings)
Yes, yes, I know. Sort of a Debbie Downer bet to make, but value is value!
In 30 years of the PDC World Championship, there have only been three occurrences of two or more nine darters. It's a hard thing to root against, as we all want to see a nine-darter or two or three or as many as we can get, but statistically, they're hard to come across.
In fact, there have only been 14 nine-darters in PDC Championship history over those 30 years — about one every two years on average. Which is why I also hold a "No Nine-Darters" ticket at +165. These odds aren't available anymore, but I think under 1.5 is still a good bet even laying this price.
Michael Leboff's Darts Betting Card
Paolo Nebrida to win 3-2 (+1800 at DraftKings) vs. Simon Whitlock
Like my good friend Mark, I think bettors should strongly consider fading Simon "The Wizard" Whitlock on Day 1. Whitlock is an old head and has plenty of fond memories at the Alexandra Palace, but his salad days are behind him now and he's in for a fight with the Asian Tour champion here.
Nebrida is live for the upset here, but instead of just backing the moneyline I'll go with a prop on Nebrida to win in five sets as it's unlikely he'll just rout Whitlock.
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Mikuru Suzuki +2.5 sets (+105 at DraftKings) vs. Ricardo Pietreczko
It's been a funky back-half of 2023 for Ricardo "Pikachu" Pietreczko. The German Pietreczko won his first PDC title at the 2023 German Darts Championship and beat Peter Wright and Michael van Gerwen in the process. But last month "Pikachu" stirred up some drama with the crowd at the Grand Slam of Darts and now will have to deal with being a "black hat" at the Alexandra Palace.
The crowd at the Ally Pally will do everything it can to throw off the German and that should distract him enough to hand a set to Mikuru Suzuki, who will be a fan favorite as one of two women in the field of 96.
Steve Lennon -2.5 sets (+390 at DraftKings) vs. Owen Bates
You're going to hear a lot about the young trio of Owen Bates, Luke Littler and Gian van Veen at the Alexandra Palace, but of the three of them it's Bates, 21, who will have the toughest opening round match.
This is the sixth trip to the World Championships for Lennon, 30, and that experience should prove vital against a player who has barely had any major experience. If Lennon is able to get Bates on the ropes in the first set, I like his chances of just running away and making quick work of a debutante.
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