Week 1 is always tricky because there is so much uncertainty. That can make it a good time to find value, but it also means the confidence level on any sort of conviction should be lower. We are dealing with a lot of unknowns.
That said, this is the exact type of spot where I think the market may be a bit too aggressive in assuming a rookie RB’s full role right away.
NFL Week 1 Player Prop for Wednesday, September 9
My overall take on Jadarian Price is pretty nuanced. I’ve been saying ever since Seattle took him in the 1st round that it was a dream landing spot. With Kenneth Walker III gone and Zach Charbonnet likely to miss time early in the season, Price should open his career as the lead back.
So this is not me fading Price as a player. I think he’s good. I think he can look excellent as a runner right away. I’m not really interested in fading his rushing yards prop in the 51-yard range, even against a strong Patriots run defense. That is the market where I’m more willing to buy into his talent, draft capital, and likely early-down role.
The reception market is where I want to be more cautious.
Price is a bit of an unusual 1st-round RB. He only had 295 touches in college at Notre Dame, although a huge reason for that is he was playing behind Jeremiyah Love, one of the best RB prospects we’ve seen in quite some time. Price was very efficient when he did get touches, and I thought he had 2nd-round talent.
But he only had 87 pass-blocking snaps in his college career and is still a bit raw in that area. That matters for rookie RBs because pass protection is one of the quickest ways to lose passing-down snaps early in a career.
He also didn’t play in the preseason. That may have been due to the lower-body soreness he was dealing with, or Seattle just wanting to protect its starting RB. But I was still a bit surprised they didn’t get him some live reps, especially as a pass blocker.
So in his debut, I think we could see Seattle keep his role a bit cleaner. Let him handle early downs, use him in spots where they are more likely to run, and avoid putting too much on his plate in obvious passing situations.
My current assumption is that Price inherits more of the Kenneth Walker role, while George Holani handles more of the Charbonnet role, with Emmanuel Wilson also mixing in. That doesn’t mean it has to play out exactly that way, but it’s the framework I’m using for now.
I have Sam Darnold dropping back around 36 times, with Price running a route on roughly 35% of those dropbacks. That gets him around 13 routes. From there, I’m giving him around a 14% target rate and a high catch rate, roughly 80-85%, if he is targeted. That gets me around 1.4 receptions, with about a 59% chance to stay under 1.5.
If anything, I think that projection may already be a bit bullish on his true median passing-game role. I don’t want to fade his 8.5-9.5 receiving yards prop nearly as much because he can clear that on one catch.
Again, my concern isn’t what Price can do once the ball is in his hands. It’s whether he will be on the field enough in obvious passing situations to earn multiple targets.
He also had some fumbling issues in college, which is another thing that could impact his playing time if it flares up early. I’m not trying to overstate that, especially with Seattle’s current depth chart being Holani and Wilson, but it’s another small factor that makes me hesitant to assume a full all-purpose role right away.
I won’t be shocked if Price has a couple catches for 10+ yards and this loses. That is always in play with a talented back. But I think the better way to fade him in his debut is by fading his passing-down usage, not his rushing ability.
So my stance on Price for Week 1 is pretty simple: bullish on the rushing role, cautious on the receiving role.
Pick: Jadarian Price Under 1.5 Receptions (+107)
