Patriots vs Seahawks First Touchdown Scorer Props

Patriots vs Seahawks Touchdown Scorer Picks

Eli Raridon First Touchdown (+6000) / Anytime Touchdown (+1500)

I’m taking two shots on Patriots rookie TE Eli Raridon to score a touchdown on NFL opening night against the Seahawks.

The biggest thing I’m betting on here is Raridon’s role. There was a ton of preseason buzz around him from Patriots beat writers, including reports that he was getting significant first-team reps and even mixing in with the starters in base packages over Hunter Henry.

I don't expect him to outright take Henry's job, but I do think there is a legitimate chance he rotates into
single-TE sets while serving as the primary TE2 in heavier personnel.

The fact that Raridon was rested alongside the starters in New England's final preseason game is notable. I think it’s a pretty good indication that the coaching staff expects him to have a meaningful role from the beginning of the season.

The most important part of Raridon's profile for this bet is his blocking ability. It was the calling card of his prospect profile coming out of Notre Dame and a large part of what made him a third-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Against a tough Seattle rush defense, I think New England will need to use heavier personnel to run the ball effectively, thus creating more opportunities for Raridon to be on the field. He should still have opportunities to remain involved when the Patriots move into single-TE formations, but his blocking gives him a clearer path to meaningful snaps than a
typical backup tight end.

That matters because the Patriots' staff already showed a willingness to use multiple tight ends near the goal line. The Patriots used two or more tight ends on 35% of their red-zone plays last season over a 140-play sample.

If Raridon is going to be the surefire TE2 in an offense that frequently uses multiple tight ends in scoring situations, there is a much more realistic path to touchdown opportunities than his +1500 price tag for an Anytime TD suggests.

The game environment also makes the first-touchdown bet more appealing. Heavier personnel is more commonly used in positive game scripts, and the Patriots would likely be in that type of situation if they are in position to score the first touchdown.

If New England is able to sustain an early drive against Seattle and leans on its heavier packages near the goal line, Raridon would
be in a great spot to score a touchdown.

Hunter Henry should remain the primary tight end, and Raridon's role will obviously be dependent on personnel and game script. But he doesn't need a massive target share for these bets to have value. He simply needs to be on the field enough in scoring situations to get a handful of legitimate opportunities from Drake Maye, which creates value at +1500 Anytime TD/+6000 First TD.

The anytime TD market is the primary bet for me because I think +1500 is too long for the role I expect him to have.

The first touchdown at +6000 is obviously much more volatile, but I think it makes sense as a small add-on given the price, projected game environment, and potential for New England to use heavier personnel early, giving Raridon a realistic path to being involved in the Patriots' first scoring opportunity.

Looking around the market, comparable tight ends in similar roles and game environments are priced around +1000 and +4000, respectively.

Ultimately, I don't think this line is correctly accounting for the number of red-zone snaps Raridon is likely to see.