2026 Oscar Odds, Predictions: Early Bets to Consider Following Nominations Announcement

Nominees for the 2026 Oscars were announced Thursday morning, and odds are beginning to settle on our five nominees in each category and 10 nominees for Best Picture.

The 2026 Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The show will be broadcast by ABC with Conan O'Brien hosting.

One Battle After Another is the current favorite to take home Best Picture. Behind it are a trio of films looking to pull the upset in Hamnet, Sinners, and Marty Supreme.

Here are my early betting takes for the 2026 Oscars.

Prices as of Thursday morning, January 22, and via Kalshi, which allows bettors to place real money on events like the Oscars in all 50 states.

Best Picture Odds, Predictions

It's always possible for a dark-horse to rise up in the seven weeks between nominations and the ceremony, such as Anora last year, CODA in 2022, and Parasite in 2020, but what we're looking at early on is exactly what was expected: One Battle After Another way out in front.

The three films that will generate the most buzz over the next couple of weeks are Sinners, Hamnet, and Marty Supreme. The question is whether any of those three can truly win and whether there's value in betting on them or against One Battle After Another.

Hamnet won at the Golden Globes, but it didn't compete directly against One Battle After Another, which also won Best Picture in its own category. Still, that win has likely made Hamnet overvalued in the market right now, even at south of 10%.

Many are likening Hamnet's chances of upsetting One Battle After Another to another famous upset involving a film about William Shakespeare in 1999, when Shakespeare in Love beat out Saving Private Ryan, a decision that still baffles many.

Marty Supreme will have its backers, but I have a hard time envisioning it gaining the momentum needed to overtake One Battle After Another. The main drama around that film is if it will get Timothee Chalamet his first Oscar.

That leaves Sinners. Ryan Coogler is a beloved figure by the Academy, and the fact that he scored nominations in both directing and screenplay categories for this film only boosts his chances.

Betting the Oscars is all about reacting before something happens, and that's the argument for betting Sinners right now, but I can't get there at the current price.

In fact, if anything, now is the time to jump on One Battle After Another. If we're attempting to react before something happens, there's a very real possibility that the film goes the way of Oppenheimer and winds up as something like a 98% favorite by showtime. So the fact that it's hovering around 70% at the moment might mean it's time to buy in that respect.

That's exactly what I'll be doing. Buying One Battle After Another now, and keeping an eye on the Sinners price as awards season drags on toward March 15th.

Best Bet: One Battle After Another (71%)

Best Actor Odds, Predictions

I feel similarly about the Best Actor race as I do about Best Picture: now is the time to buy the favorite, who has a chance to become a runaway over the next seven weeks.

This race actually reminds me a lot of the Best Actress race a year ago. It seems like a two-horse race between Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio, but we're going to see a lot of buzz around Wagner Moura over the next two months, and you're going to read countless takes about how he's the long-shot worth backing.

It's exactly what we saw a year ago, when we had a race between two actresses (Mikey Madison and Demi Moore) with a lot of love for a third, long-shot (in a non-English film, too): Fernanda Torres.

Madison ultimately won, and that's what I think we see here. Chalamet is like the male Emma Stone, a young Oscar darling, only unlike Stone, he's yet to take home Oscar gold.

I think this is the start. DiCaprio is seen as his chief rival, but he's not actually taking home any trophies; he's just finishing second everywhere.

Chalamet is undervalued here.

Best Bet: Timothee Chalamet (71%)

Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions

The supporting actor categories are often the least interesting simply because more often than not there's a clear runaway favorite, but this year the script is flipped, and of the four acting categories, these two seem the most up for grabs.

As expected, though, the Best Supporting Actress race is going to come down to Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another vs. Amy Madigan for Weapons. It's a fascinating matchup of two roles and films that couldn't be more different.

We've seen in recent years that when it comes to acting, the Academy's voters are not afraid to award the young newcomer. Mikey Madison over Demi Moore last year is just the latest example, and that's a trend that's only come to be over the last few years.

That's a big reason why Taylor enters as a pretty strong favorite, but I think it's too strong. Madigan is a 75-year-old veteran character actor you likely know best as Kevin Costner's wife in 1989's Field of Dreams, and she's performed exceptionally well in the smaller showcases on the awards circuit. Taylor beat Madigan at the Golden Globes, and I think that's tilted the odds to an unnecessary degree.

Like so many of these categories, we're going to see these two go head-to-head a number of times over the next seven weeks, so I'll be watching closely, but there's enough value on Madigan here to throw down a small bet on the underdog.

Best Bet: Amy Madigan (17%)

Best International Feature Film

We entered nominations day with four international feature films having a legitimate chance of scoring a Best Picture nomination. Only two did: Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. It Was Just an Accident and No Other Choice were left out, and the latter was surprisingly left out of this category, too.

International films garnering Best Picture consideration is obviously a good thing, and it has made predicting this category a bit easier, too, as we can now pretty well guarantee that either Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent will take home this trophy.

At current prices, you can guarantee yourself a profit by wagering on both at varied amounts. Sentimental Value is trading in the mid-50% range, while The Secret Agent is sitting between 35 and 40%. Split your bet and guarantee yourself a bit of money come March 15.

Best Bets: Sentimental Value (54%) and The Secret Agent (39%)

Other Thoughts & Categories to Watch

• The Best Actress race really is between Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You). Buckley is a strong favorite and deservedly so, sitting in the high 80% range, while Byrne is down around 12%. Those prices feel fair, but I'll be looking to jump in on Byrne if she beats Buckley head-to-head at any notable awards shows over the next two months.
• Paul Thomas Anderson vs. Ryan Coogler for Best Director is simply a smaller version of the Best Picture race, but it's not all that close. PTA is now in his mid-50s and has gone from a young prodigy to someone the Academy is poised to crown after years of missing out. His best shot at an Oscar came nearly 20 years ago when he lost out with There Will Be Blood to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country For Old Men. It wasn't necessarily an upset, but the Academy and its voters are absolutely going to crown him this year, knowing there's still more time for the 39-year-old Coogler.
• The Best Supporting Actor race is the most fascinating among the acting awards, but I haven't found any value in it yet. The current favorite (Stellan Skarsgård) is trading just over 50%, and this is a category where four of the five nominees could legitimately win — that's with due respect to the incredible Delroy Lindo, whose nomination I'm very happy about but was incredibly surprising. I'll be watching this race closely over the next seven weeks, but I can't pull the trigger on any of Skarsgård, Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, or Jacob Elordi just yet.