Prediction markets are no stranger to volatility, but the "MrBeast" sector on Kalshi just hit a new level of drama. This week, the platform grabbed headlines by suspending MrBeast employee Artem Kaptur for alleged insider trading. The editor in question reportedly placed a series of "near-perfect" trades on markets specifically tied to the YouTube king's content — likely leveraging non-public knowledge of video scripts and upload schedules.
While Kalshi has cracked down on the "insiders," the public markets remain wide open. For traders, this scandal adds a layer of psychological complexity: are the current odds reflecting reality, or are they skewed by the fallout of the investigation?
Below are the most active MrBeast markets to watch right now.
And if you want to get in on the action yourself, be sure to use this Kalshi promo code for a $10 new-user offer.
Latest MrBeast Odds at Kalshi
Here are the latest Kalshi odds for different MrBeast markets at Kalshi:
What Will MrBeast Say in His Next YouTube Video? Live Odds
This is the ultimate high-frequency market for MrBeast fans. Traders try to predict what Jimmy will say in his next main-channel upload, just like people tried to predict recent State of the Union mentions.
The Play: Common tropes like "Win,""Time," or "Challenge" are currently the heavy hitters, often sitting at the top of the board. Meanwhile, classic staples like "Car,""Insane," and "Water" have drifted toward the middle of the market.
The Context: Following the insider trading news, many are watching for any shift in video "formulas" as Beast Industries tightens internal controls to prevent script leaks.
Will MrBeast Hit 500 Million Subscribers This Year? Live Odds
Jimmy is currently the most-subscribed individual on Earth, and the march toward half a billion is the biggest macro trend in the creator economy. At the time of publishing, he's quickly approaching 470 million.
The Play: "Yes" to hitting 500M before the end of 2026 has historically been the safe bet. The recent scandal and internal investigations could either bring MrBeast more attention or cause him to lose loyalty.
The Context: If negative press from the Kalshi scandal or employee misconduct leads to a dip in retention or a pause in his aggressive upload schedule, that "Yes" price could see its first real correction.
Will MrBeast Donate to East Carolina University Athletics NIL Programs This Year? Live Odds
MrBeast’s ties to his hometown of Greenville, NC, are well-documented. This market asks if he will officially donate to East Carolina University’s NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) programs this year.
The Play: This is a "wait-and-see" market. While he’s teased $100 million ideas in the past, a formal athletic donation hasn't materialized yet.
The Context: The "Yes" market is skeptical, but one Instagram story could send this contract to $0.90 in seconds.
Will MrBeast and Thea Booysen Be Married This Year? Live Odds
The personal life of Jimmy Donaldson is now a tradable asset. This market tracks whether he and longtime partner Thea Booysen will tie the knot before 2027.
The Play: While the couple recently got engaged and Jimmy has gushed about wedding plans in recent interviews, the "Yes" side is sitting below half at the time of publishing.
The Context: Personal milestones are often the hardest to predict because they don't follow a "production schedule." As a result, markets involving wedding bells are the most "insider-proof" on the board.
If you're interested in trading on other celeb marriages, check out our guide on Taylor Swift Wedding Odds.
When Will the MrBeast Million-Dollar Puzzle Be Completed? Live Odds
Following the massive Super Bowl 2026 ad campaign with Salesforce, the "Million Dollar Puzzle" is the current internet obsession.
The Play: There is a glaring arbitrage opportunity or "mismatch" here, which reflects the volatility of prediction market apps. The odds for completion before October 2026 are significantly higher than the odds for before 2027.
The Context: Logic dictates that if it’s solved before October, it’s also solved before 2027, yet the pricing suggests the market is confused about the timeline of the clues. Keep an eye on the "Help" clues scheduled to drop if the puzzle remains unsolved.
What Is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
