We are less than two weeks from the 2026 Oscars and the odds board is becoming clear: One Battle After Another is the overwhelming favorite to claim the top prize of Best Picture.
Paul Thomas Anderson's film is sitting at around -500 odds across different sportsbooks and is at 81% to win Best Picture on Kalshi at the time of this writing.
The 2026 Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood. The ceremony will be broadcast on ABC, and Conan O'Brien will host for the second consecutive year.
Below you will find full betting odds and 2026 Oscars favorites.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction about the Academy Awards, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
2026 Oscars Odds
Oscars Best Picture Odds
One Battle After Another remains the heavy favorite to take home the Best Picture award at the 2026 Academy Awards, checking in at 81% at Kalshi.
Only three other films even have better than a 1% chance of winning the prize, according to the oddsmakers.
Sinners is the second favorite at 14% to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Sinners has already set a record for the most Oscar nominations in a single year, with 16.
The other film behind Sinners is Hamnet at 4%. The other seven nominees are all trending as serious long-shots.
Oscars Best Director Odds
As much as One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Picture, the film's director is an even stronger favorite to take home the Best Director Oscar at the Academy Awards.
Paul Thomas Anderson is trading at 91% on Kalshi to win Best Director, the only nominee at double-digit percentage.
The second favorite in the category is Ryan Coogler for Sinners, who is at 8% to win Best Director at the Oscars.
Chloe Zhao, director of Hamnet, is 2% to win Best Director at the Academy Awards, while long-shots Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) are both at 1%.
Oscars Best Actor Odds
The Best Actor race had a hitch thrown in it on Sunday night when the Screen Actors Guild surprisingly gave its top prize to Michael B. Jordan over Timothee Chalamet.
Chalamet's odds on Kalshi were at as high as 68% entering Sunday night and were as high as 79% just a few weeks ago.
Make no mistake: Jordan's victory on Sunday was a huge and stunning result during an awards season where Chalamet was seen as the runaway winner, taking the Best Actor prize at nearly every other precursor ceremony leading up to the Oscars.
But just in the last week, we've seen the possibility that this wouldn't be the case. At the BAFTAs a week ago, both Chalamet and Jordan lost to Robert Aramayo for I Swear (which is not nominated at the Oscars), and then on Sunday, Jordan beat Chalamet head-to-head.
Months ago, this race seemed like Chalamet against Leonardo DiCaprio, but as the elder statesman has faded, it seemed like Chalamet's to lose.
Let's not forget that a year ago, a similar trend unfolded. We thought Chalamet was going to get crowned with his first Best Actor prize for his performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, only for Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) to come from behind to beat him.
So, of course, this year would instead be Chalamet's coronation. That still very well may be the case, and he's still trading around 50% at Kalshi to Jordan's 40%, but Sunday's result made this race infinitely more interesting as we enter the final two weeks before the Academy Awards.
The long shots in this category are Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon and Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.
Oscars Best Actress Odds
Jessie Buckley cemented herself as the overwhelming favorite to claim Best Actress with another win on Sunday night at the Actor Awards.
With the win, Buckley's chances climbed to 95% at Kalshi.
This race initially looked to be a close battle between Buckley and Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, but Buckley has jumped ahead on the odds board. Byrne is now trading below 5% to win Best Actress at the Oscars.
The long shots to win Best Actress are Emma Stone for Bugonia, Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, and Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value.
Oscars Best Supporting Actor Odds
Sean Penn's wins for Best Supporting Actor at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards have cemented him as the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor at the Academy Awards, and he's not trading at nearly 80%.
The one kicker about his Sunday win is that he did not face Stellan Skarsgard. The SAG doesn't trend nearly as internationally as the Academy, so Skarsgard at 11% might still be in the ballgame entering the Oscars.
But Penn has jumped ahead as the clear favorite with those wins, regardless, which helped separate what was initially a very jumbled race. Penn was trading around 15% not all that long ago.
Delroy Lindo has seen a leap in his odds ever since being a surprise nominee, but is still below 10%, as are long-shots Benicio del Toro and Jacob Elordi.
Oscars Best Supporting Actress Odds
This is by far the most confounding race among the major categories at the Academy Awards.
Amy Madigan won the prize at Sunday night's Actor Awards, making this a true three-woman race at the Oscars.
Madigan's win gave her two major wins alongside her Critics Choice Award. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe, while Wunmi Mosaku won at the BAFTA — where Madigan wasn't even nominated.
Thus, these odds are a giant shrug emoji. However, recency bias has Madigan in the lead as she's trading just over 40% now. Taylor is at 32%, while Mosaku is at 24%.
The long shots are both from Sentimental Value: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 3% and Elle Fanning at 1%.
